Astros’ Chase Problem at Plate is Becoming Impossible to Ignore

If the Houston Astros are going to succeed offensively, they need to stop swinging at junk.

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez. | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

There’s been a lot wrong with the Houston Astros throughout the start of the 2026 season. Whether it be bad pitching performances or no-shows by the offense, there always seems to be something awry with how the Astros are playing.

In the series finale against the Texas Rangers on Sunday, a game that ended in an 8-0 defeat for Houston, the issue was singular: The Astros couldn’t stop chasing pitches outside the strike zone, particularly against starter Nathan Eovaldi.

For seven innings, Eovaldi, who has experience pitching well against the Astros at Daikin Park, sliced and diced his way through Houston’s lineup. He allowed just five hits, struck out eight and walked only two. Perhaps the most important number was how many runs he allowed: zero.

Yeah, it was impressive stuff.

What turned it from a good outing into a great one was just how well he was able to get opposing hitters to chase. He generated 27 whiffs outside of the zone against the Astros lineup, the most chases by a single pitcher in MLB on May 17.

For the Astros, that’s simply unacceptable and not a recipe to win a baseball game. It becomes especially disappointing when one puts it in the context of the situation. The Astros had a chance to sweep their fiercest rival and instead of accomplishing that task, they made a mess of things and walked away disappointed.

But it’s not just Sunday’s game where this has been a problem. The Astros have been chasing pitches all season long, and it must stop.

The Astros Are Swinging at Too Many Bad Pitches

Houston Astros right fielder Cam Smith. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

On the whole, the Astros’ whiff rate of 25.3% is not that bad. In fact, it’s the exact league average. The situation becomes a whole lot messier because the majority of those swings and misses are coming on pitches outside of the zone.

Houston possesses a 31.2% chase rate, which is the 10th-worst mark in MLB in that statistic. Only the Colorado Rockies (35.7%), Toronto Blue Jays (34.5%), Atlanta Braves (34%), Philadelphia Phillies (33.5%), Arizona Diamondbacks (33.2%), San Francisco Giants (33.1%), San Diego Padres (32.3%), Boston Red Sox (31.9%) and New York Mets (31.4%) are worse at chasing than the Astros. Most of those clubs are near the bottom of the league standings, with the Braves and Padres being the glaring exceptions to that rule.

There are some fairly large chase culprits in Houston’s lineup. Jose Altuve is chasing 33.3% of the time. Cam Smith (31.7%) loves to do it, too. Christian Vázquez (33.3%), Zach Cole (32.8%) and Jake Meyers (31.7%) are also lovers of the chase. But the major suspects in the case of “who on the Astros swings at pitches outside the zone the most” are Braden Shewmake and Yainer Diaz.

Shewmake is chasing 58.8% of the time — with a limited 140-pitch sample size — and Diaz is chasing 42.9% of the time, with a much broader 339-pitch sample size. Yeah, that’s not going to cut it.

It’s been said before and it’ll be said again, but if the Astros are going to have any chance of competing in 2026, they’re going to need to right the ship. One way to do that is to stop swinging at pitches that aren’t strikes. It may sound simple, but it’s the truth.