Astros Enter Crucial Final Stretch After Familiar Late-Season Test

The Astros have been wobbly down the stretch in the last three seasons.

Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (left) and Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 2026 Astros have 11 games to play, trying to maintain their 1.0-game lead in the division. Looking back on their last three playoff chases, what did the Astros do or fail to do in their final 11 games to seal their postseason fate?

2025 - Lost Wild Card Tiebreaker

Los Angeles Angels shortstop Denzer Guzman (13) and Houston Astros center fielder Jacob Melton (31) Credit: William Liang-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In 2025, the Astros entered the final 11 games of the season trailing the Mariners by 0.5 games. The Astros were 3.0 games up in the final Wild Card race, with Cleveland and Texas both seven games above .500 and the Astros 13 games above.

After pushing Texas out of the hunt with two straight wins against the Rangers, the Astros proceeded to lose five in a row. It turned out that neither the Rangers nor the Guardians would be the team competing for the final playoff spot with the Astros. The Tigers lost eight in a row, including five against Cleveland, to go from leading the division to sitting in the final wild card spot.

The Astros would end up tied with the Tigers for the final wild card spot but lost out on the tiebreaker. The fatal game would be a 4-3 loss to the Angels in the second-to-last game of the season. The Astros were up 3-0 after three and a half innings before giving up a single run in the fourth and fifth. The Astros allowed a two-out, game-tying single in the seventh to Chris Taylor before allowing a go-ahead home run to Mike Trout in the eighth. The Astros would go quietly in the bottom of the ninth, ending their hopes of a wild card berth by virtue of the tiebreaker with Detroit.

2024 - Won Division Over Mariners

Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3) and Seattle Mariners right fielder Victor Robles (10) Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

In 2024, the Astros would win the division by 3.5 games over the Mariners. With 11 games to go, the Astros led by 5.0 games, with games versus San Diego, the Los Angeles Angels, Seattle and Cleveland remaining. They maintained that 5.0-game lead heading into the Seattle series with six games to play.

All the Astros had to do was win one of the games against the Mariners to clinch the division. After losing game one, the Astros would erase a 3-1 Seattle lead with home runs from Kyle Tucker and Jason Heyward. The Astros would coast to a division lead and would not play the irrelevant final game of the season.

2023 – Won Division Tiebreaker Against Rangers

In 2023, the Astros were up by 1.5 games over Texas in the division race with no games against the Rangers remaining, led by first-year manager Joe Espada. The Astros would lose four of five to start the stretch and go down by 2.5 games in the division. After the Astros took two of three from Seattle, they would still trail the Rangers by 2.5.

Texas had four games remaining, while the Astros had three, and the division tiebreaker favored Texas. On the final Thursday, Texas lost, reducing their lead to 2.0 games, with both teams having three games left. In the next two games, the Astros won both, while the Rangers went 1-1. This set up a scenario where the Astros could claim the division title if they won their final game and the Rangers lost theirs. Ultimately, the Astros won decisively, 8-1, while the Rangers fell to the Mariners, 1-0. This outcome secured the Astros their sixth division title in seven seasons.

Over the last three years, the Astros will look to beat their shaky performances, as two of the last three Astros teams have had a losing spell during the final 11 games. Houston will be focused on their own record against the Royals, Braves, Mariners and Athletics, with a keen eye on the Rangers, as they have done with the Mariners and Rangers in previous seasons.