How Carlos Correa’s Season-Ending Surgery Impacts Astros’ Future

The Houston Astros third baseman is expected to have his surgery this week and that limits what Houston can get out of his contract.

Houston Astros infielder Carlos Correa. | Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

When the Houston Astros traded for Carlos Correa last July, the hope was that they would get significant production out of him.

His ankle injury will limit what Houston can get out of him and how long the Astros can keep him, which is dependent upon how he produces after he returns.

Per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Correa is scheduled to have surgery to repair the tendon in his left ankle in Houston on Monday. The surgery will end his season, and the prognosis is good that he’ll be ready to go in 2027.

But here’s why losing him this season puts a real limit on how much longer the Astros have control over their superstar.

Carlos Correa’s Cloudy Future

Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

When the Astros made the deal, they knew they were taking on the remainder of Correa’s contract. On paper, that’s for two more years — 2027 and 2028. With him getting hurt it takes a year of production away from an offense that could use it. He was slashing .279/.369/.418 with three home runs and 16 RBI.

Assuming he comes back healthy and avoids injury, he can give the Astros two more years of solid production. But could it be more? That depends entirely on Correa.

His contract, originally signed with the Minnesota Twins, comes with four years of vesting options, starting in 2029. To trigger the vesting option, he must achieve one of the following in the previous season — 575 plate appearances, Top 5 in MVP voting, a Silver Slugger, a League Championship Series MVP or a World Series MVP. Otherwise, he becomes a free agent.

The easiest milestone to achieve is the plate appearances. Correa has done that previously. In 2021 he had 640 plate appearances in 148 games, in 2022 he had 590 plate appearances in 2022 and 580 plate appearances in 135 games in 2023. He just squeezed by with 584 plate appearances in 144 games last season.

There is wiggle room for Correa to achieve the vesting option. He doesn’t have to play every game. But he does need to play at least 135 games, based on previous seasons, to get to that point. Every year he does that, starting in 2028, allows him to trigger the next vesting option. That’s something the Astros will have to live with if Correa comes back healthy and ready to roll.

But it also puts an accelerated clock on Correa’s time with the Astros, especially after losing nearly all the season.