The Trade Conversation the Houston Astros Have Been Dreading Is Here

Correa is out for the season. That statement could have been the final blow to a team that just can’t escape injury and, quite honestly, bad luck.

The roster is in ruins, and it has been for quite a while.

Now, the conversation no one wants to be having in Houston is about to become front and center.

Should the Houston Astros trade Yordan Álvarez?

The Case For

Yordan Alvarez | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

To begin with, we really have to accept the truth about what this team is. Carlos Correa, Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, Yainer Diaz, Jake Meyers, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, Joey Loperfido, Taylor Traffell and Jeremy Pena have all been, or still are, on the IL. At times, it would be a lot easier just to say who isn’t on the IL.

Next, the pitching ERA is the worst in baseball. The worst. The 15-22 record? Well, that’s just one game away from being the worst in Major League Baseball.

Correa tore a tendon in his left ankle on a routine swing in the batting cage. He faces a six to eight-month recovery. That means he is done for the season.

So is Wesneski. So is Brandon Walter. Ronel Blanco is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. You get the picture. This is a disaster, and no one is really sure who to blame. The injuries this team has succumbed to are of historic proportions.

The Astros are the worst team in the American League. If this is still true around the trade deadline, Álvarez could be the hottest trade piece around. He could get enough in return to absolutely reset the farm system.

Take a quick look, he is 28 years old, under contract through 2028 at $26 million per season, and is currently slashing .319/.423/.638 with 12 home runs, 27 RBIs, and a 1.061 OPS through 38 games. The guy is elite. Truth is, he would be a bargain as well, given his multiple years of control under his contract.

He’s part of a team that is 15-23 and he is still getting mentioned in talks about MVP status. Unfortunately, there is also quite a bit of chatter about him being a likely trade piece.

The market for Álvarez would be gigantic. Let’s see, the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, and even the Atlanta Braves could be potential fits.

The Case Against

So once again, in order to look at the whole picture here, you have to be honest. This team is not in a rebuilding phase, yet.

The Astros are lucky in that they are part of the AL West, where really no team is running away with the season. Currently, Houston sits 4.5 games back.

Hunter Brown is expected back in late May or early June. Josh Hader has started his rehab journey. Imai has found his way back to MLB (although the path doesn’t look that golden right now).

The team needs players back from the IL. If just a few of the standouts can return to the rotation, the Astros are competitive again. Or, we would like to believe they would be.

Should the team decide to trade Álvarez, it would send a message that Houston may not be ready to admit to just yet. The team would be in full teardown mode. Once they play that card, it would be very hard to recover from.

For a team that had an epic run of playoffs over the last decade, this could also be a bit of a pride issue. The team likes to compete.

Without Álvarez in the lineup? That’s a possibility that is hard to imagine right now. Sure, Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes are good, but they aren’t Álvarez good.

The More Realistic and Hopefully Likely Outcome

Barring a complete collapse of the team, the Astros are probably going to hold on to Álvarez. Just as was the case during the offseason, Paredes will become the hot topic of trade. Walker will likely join that conversation as well.

Both of them would draw real interest from contenders, and Houston might be more willing to deal this time around.

The Astros are not anywhere close to being mathematically eliminated from anything. The AL West is mediocre and that gives Houston a chance to stay in the conversation. Honestly, a 10-game winning streak could change the entire conversation.

How Does This End?

Houston Astros manager Joe Espada (left) and general manager Dana Brown (right) | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

One has to admit that the question about trading Álvarez is real, and it is bound to surface many times in the coming weeks. Especially if Houston continues the path it is currently riding.

The answer right now to whether they will trade him is probably no. Or, maybe the better answer is not yet. But, the window on this choice is starting to close.

Jim Crane has a lot of decisions ahead of him in the very near future. Brown and Espada are both in the final year of their contracts. The injuries appear to be setting their chairs on fire.

Yordan Álvarez didn’t break the team; the injuries did. The roster decisions did. The unending budget constraints did. The final and most important part of this entire conversation is that Álvarez doesn’t deserve to sit and watch a season disintegrate around him.

This is a decision that could define the future of the Astros and certainly their season.

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