Astros Star Has More Complicated Path in Free Agency After Qualifying Offer

This Houston Astros starting pitcher is one of the top free agents on the market, but his qualifying offer could complicate his path.

Houston Astros hat and glove in the dugout during the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros were widely expected to extend their starting pitcher, Framber Valdez, the qualifying offer.

On Thursday, Valdez was revealed as one of 13 players to get the one-year offer, per USA Today and other outlets. The qualifying offer is $22 million for 2026, which is the average of the Top 125 salaries in baseball. Valdez has until Nov. 18 to decide if he wants to take the offer or not. During that time, he and the Astros can keep talking — and he and his agents can talk to other teams about his value.

To many experts, Valdez is one of the top free agents in baseball. MLB Trade Rumors projects him as the No. 5 overall free agent and is in line for a projected five-year deal worth $150 million. That would be $3 million more in average annual value. But it’s not just the money prospective teams have to worry about — and that complicates Valdez’s path to a long-term deal.

What Happens Next with Framber Valdez

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For teams that are intent on signing him, Valdez will cost them more than just money. Teams that are not paying into the Competitive Balance Tax must give up their third-highest draft pick to the Astros if they sign Valdez. That’s a significant punishment, as the non-CBT teams are usually the game’s small- and medium-market teams.

Valdez is probably chasing a deal with a contender, and many of them pay into the CBT. For those teams, the payout to the Astros will be steeper. It will include their second and fifth-highest picks, along with $1 million in international bonus pool money.

Any team that wants to sign him must keep that price in mind. It’s especially acute for teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have cornered the market on big-money deals but have not been shy about signing players on the qualifying offer in recent years.

Valdez is coming off a 2025 in which he went 13-11 with a. 3.66 ERA. He has been one of the most consistent left-handers in baseball since he arrived as a full-time starter in the 2021 season. He is 81-52 for his career with a 3.36 ERA, including 1,053 strikeouts. He went to the All-Star Game twice, claimed a ring with Houston in the 2022 World Series and has finished in the Top 10 in Cy Young voting three different times.

He is entering his age-32 season looking for the first long-term deal of his career. He’s never been a free agent and how his agent gauges the market in the next two weeks will determine what Valdez does. Only 14 players have accepted the qualifying offer since 2012. If the long-term deal he wants isn’t there, that offer becomes his fall-back.

If he bolts, the Astros get something in return.