Astros Taking Risk on Mike Burrows as he Must Provide Quick Value to Rotation

The Houston Astros gave up plenty to acquire one pitcher in a three-way deal and it’s a risk in both the short-term and long-term.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mike Burrows (53) pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros need starting pitching. The hoops the jumped through on Friday to get one were risky.

The three-way trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Tampa Bay Rays only netted the Astros a starting pitcher, Mike Burrows, from the Pirates. Pittsburgh also got second baseman Brandon Lowe, outfielder Jake Mangum and left-handed pitcher Mason Montgomery from the Rays. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay made out with two of the Astros’ top prospects in outfielder Jacob Melton and pitcher Anderson Brito.

Melton made his MLB debut earlier this year and could be a starter for the Rays. Brito needs more time to develop but has immense upside. Instead, Houston gets Burrows and the pressure is on him to provide a return right away. The Astros better hope he can.

Mike Burrows’ Short MLB History

James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

Burrows’ biggest benefit, at least to this point, is that he isn’t arbitration eligible until 2029 and won’t be a free agent until 2032. The Astros likely wanted several years of team control on whatever return they received. But they would have had even more control over Brito once he gets to the Majors.

Burrows, a right-hander, was on a slow burn in the Pirates’ system since he was an 11th round pick in the 2018 MLB draft out of Waterford High School in Waterford, Conn. He finally reached the Majors in 2024 as he pitched in one game for the Pirates, claiming a win in relief with 3.1 innings as he allowed two hits and two runs (one earned).

He moved into a full-time starting role last season, as he started 19 games and appeared in 23 games, as he went 2-4 with a 3.94 ERA. He pitched just 96 innings, as he struck out 97 and 31 walks. His Baseball Savant page reveals a starter with a four-pitch mix who leads hard into a four-seam fastball 39% of the time and a change-up 24% of the time. While his percentile rankings are generally cool, one stands out — his off-speed run value, which finished in the 97th percentile.

He can also mix a slider in 20% of the time, and the average velocity of the two pitches are generally the same — 87.3 mph on his change-up and 87.3 mph on his slider. The actions are different, which allows him to put hitters off-balance.

Where he fits is uncertain. The Astros have several starters either on the injured list or coming off injuries. If one were to project a starting rotation, it would be Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander and some combination of Burrows, Ryan Weiss and Lance McCullers Jr.

How he pays off right away is how Astros fans and experts will judge the trade. The tools are there. But, with an immense number of options on the 40-man roster, the opportunity is unclear.