Biggest Concern for Houston Astros Going Into 2026 Season Opening Day

The Astros are going to be in an uphill climb to get back to the top of the division and back to the postseason, and there is one aspect to this roster that management should be worried about.

Astros manager Joe Espada speaks to reporters before a spring training workout at CACTI Park of The Palm Beaches | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Had the Houston Astros not been plagued by injuries towards the end of the summer in 2025, it seems more than safe to say the team would have, at best, won the AL West, at worst, made the playoffs. Instead, the organization watched the postseason from their couches.

The last time that happened was in 2016. Since that point, the Astros have not missed the postseason and have won a pair of World Series, so for a team accustomed to winning, it was more than painful to sit that one out.

However, is this team currently poised to take back the division? Not necessarily as one glaring hole in their roster still exists: quality depth in the starting rotation.

Astros pitcher Hunter Brown (58) delivers a pitch against the Athletics in the first inning at Sutter Health Park. | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Immediately, when someone thinks of Houston, they think of Hunter Brown, or at least they should. Unfortunately, Brown cannot start every game.

Their American League foes for 2026 will likely be the Detroit Tigers and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Tigers obviously are led by Tarik Skubal, but they also have Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Justin Verland, and now former Astros' Framber Valdez.

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, don't have a clear No.1 just yet, but that is what makes them so scary. The Jays will have arguably the best six-man rotation in baseball with no clear weakness in their pitching staff.

Astros Possible Starters For 2026

Astros pitcher Tatsuya Imai (45) poses for a photo during media day | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The biggest concern with Tatsuya Imai (predicted No. 2 to Brown) is that he has yet to throw a pitch in the majors, as his professional career has entirely been in Japan. If he looks the same as he did then, no problem. If he doesn't, big problem.

*Note* These stats are looking at the 2025 season and how old they will be on Opening Day.

• Hunter Brown: 27 years old/2.48 ERA/206 strikeouts in 185.1 innings/1.03 WHIP
• Tatsuya Imai: 27 years old/1.92 ERA/178 strikeouts in 163.2 innings/0.89 WHIP
• Cristain Javier: 29 years old/4.62 ERA/ 34 strikeouts in 37 innings/ 1.27 WHIP
• Mike Burrows: 26 years old/ 3.94 ERA/ 96 strikeouts in 97 innings/ 1.24 WHIP
• Lance McCullers Jr.: 32 years old/ 6.51 ERA/ 61 strikeouts in 55.1 innings/ 1.24 WHIP
• Spencer Arrighetti: 26 years old/ 5.35 ERA/ 31 strikeouts in 35.1 innings/ 1.42 WHIP

Loss of Framber Valdez

Detroit Tigers newest pitcher Framber Valdez practices during spring training at TigerTown in Lakeland, Fla | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Love him or hate him, one thing is undeniable: the production that Framber Valdez brought to the team in 2025 has not been replaced since the Detroit Tigers signed him to an incomprehensible contract.

Valdez trailed only Brown on the pitching staff in strikeouts (187) as the only two starters to amass more than 100. On top of that, he took on the bulk of the reps as he matched Brown in starts (31) but actually pitched in nearly seven more innings.

Despite this being a slow offseason, the bulk of the free agents that the Astros should have pursued are no longer available. They are clearly banking on players to step up and Imai to shine. If that doesn't happen, Houston will have to make some deals for another arm.