Houston Astros Projected Rotation Grades High in Advanced Pitching Analytics

As the Houston Astros enter spring training camp, their success will largely depend on the strength of their talented starting rotation.

In an article for The Athletic, Eno Saris ranked the Houston Astros projected rotation, noting that all their pitchers fall within the top 106 in metrics such as Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+.

While pitchers are all taught balance throughout a repeatable delivery, metrics such as Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ consider a pitcher’s uniqueness.

Certain pitchers have a different arm slot or release points, while others have great extension – releasing the pitch closer to the plate. Additionally, a few pitchers utilize a cross-body release point or successfully hide the ball from hitters.

The introduction of analytics to pitching has revolutionized the craft, incorporating factors like spin rate, maximum effort, measured movement and precise location.

Framber Valdez

Rank: 12, Stuff+106, Location+ 100, Pitching + 110, Proj.IP 174, ppERA 3.24, ppK% 23.9%

Framber Valdez is the consummate ace. He is durable and is an innings eater. Since 2022, he has averaged over 200 innings per season and a 2.82 ERA. He relies heavily on the depth of his mid-90s sinker and his sharp breaking ball. He possesses a bit of a short-arm delivery, which hides the ball well from the hitter and creates the same arm slot for his two-plus pitches.

Hunter Brown

Rank :17, Stuff+102, Location+ 101, Pitching + 104, Proj.IP 175, ppERA 3.49, ppK% 25.4%

Hunter Brown is an emerging ace — if he is not already regarded as one. Brown highlights a sinker exceeding 96 mph, which he began using in late April 2024 and then dominated the rest of the season. He is a four-pitch pitcher, featuring a 92-mph cutter and a high-80s slider with a nasty vertical break.

Lastly, he has a solid changeup that he uses mostly against left-handed hitters.

Overall, he is large, durable and filthy.

Spencer Arrighetti

Rank: 61, Stuff+102, Location+ 96, Pitching + 98, Proj.IP 159, ppERA 3.94, ppK% 25.1%

Spencer Arrighetti presents an interesting case for projections. When his location is precise, he is dominant, evidenced by his 25.1% strikeout rate. However, inconsistency can lead to issues, such as a high slugging percentage off contact.

Arrighetti combines a strong fastball with a plus slider/sweeper, while his curveball is elite. He also incorporates a cutter and a changeup. But to elevate his game, he needs to manage his pitch location better.

Arrighetti has a 2:30 arm slot, which is murderous to right-handed hitters, enhancing the movement of his slider, the run on his fastball and the depth of his developing changeup.

Notably, the vertical break on his curveball is particularly impressive given his lower arm slot.

Ronel Blanco

Rank 84, Stuff+90, Location+ 103, Pitching + 97, Proj.IP 173, ppERA 4.12, ppK% 23.1%

Typically, fourth and fifth starters in a rotation exhibit less impressive skills, but this isn't the case with the Astros' starters.

Ronel Blanco features a mid-90s four-seam fastball, along with a developing plus changeup.

His slider is characterized by its late-breaking action, making it both effective and deceptive.

He has a quiet delivery which allows his fastball to jump on hitters, especially when paired with a good changeup allowing him to put them in a rocking chair.

Hayden Wesneski

Rank: 106, Stuff+102, Location+ 102, Pitching + 99, Proj.IP 125, ppERA 3.24, ppK% 23.9%

Hayden Wesneski, who has been viewed as a "throw-in" involving the Kyle Tucker trade with the Chicago Cubs, stands out among the talented staff.

He is projected into the fifth spot of the rotation barring setbacks in spring.

He features a mid-90s fastball that he throws as a running two-seam fastball or climbs the ladder as a four-seam fastball. He also possesses a good slider with both vertical and horizontal break, as well as a changeup that has notable depth.

His athletic delivery combined with a 1:30 arm slot, enables him to generate movement on all his pitches.

Framber Valdez

Hunter Brown

Spencer Arrighetti

Ronel Blanco

Hayden Wesneski

Recommended Articles