Astros' Chaotic Starting Rotation Needs a Major Overhaul This Winter

Houston needs to regain depth in its starting pitching staff while looking for replacements for two important pieces of the bullpen.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Mike Burrows (50). Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Tatsuya Imai, Kai-Wei Teng, Cristian Javier, Mike Burrows, and Ronel Blanco combined for 59 starts for the Houston Astros in 2026, which accounted for 36% of the rotation’s workload. They usually formed the lower-middle part of the rotation, and all of them were terribly punished. The best individual ERA belonged to Teng, who posted a 5.52 ERA in 10 starts.

All the other pitchers finished with ERAs of 5.79 or higher. Burrows was a total disappointment, finishing with the worst record at a 6.05 ERA, with 21 home runs allowed in 17 starts and 93 ⅔ innings. All of them combined for a 14-24 record, a 5.85 ERA, a high walk rate of 4.51 per nine innings, and 52 home runs.

There is no other way to expect some major improvements from this group for 2027, even if arms like Javier and Blanco are at 100%. The best news for the Astros in this regard is that both Imai and Javier looked much better when they moved to the bullpen down the stretch of the season. That said, let’s also remember that Houston’s bullpen will no longer have Steven Okert or Bryan Abreu, who became free agents. So reinforcing the top of the rotation will be one of the Astros’ urgent needs, while continuing to look for arms that can maintain the durability and impact that Okert and Abreu had.

Houston Astros pitcher Ronel Blanco (56). Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I understand that the new general manager, Randy Flores, has had to move quickly with a list of priorities since taking the job, which included the appointment of new manager Brad Ausmus. But November is moving fast and the Astros should be more aggressive in the coming days to look for some of the solutions they need before the imminent Dec. 1 lockout.

Hunter Brown and Peter Lambert were the two main arms of the rotation in 2026, and Hayden Wesneski joined them; he was healthy and consistent. Perhaps he could work as a fifth starter, which would not be out of the question, but this team needs to rebuild, preferably with an elite arm and a consistent mid-rotation pitcher.

Houston’s pitching chaos needs a complete overhaul

Houston Astros general manager Randy Flores. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Fortunately for the team, Houston plays a few games a year in Sacramento, where it finished the regular season qualifying with a 9-0 win in Game 162 against the Athletics. Hitters love playing there, and it is reasonable because of the advantage the park factor offers them, but pitchers are terrified.

Houston scored 34 runs in four games and won that final series 3-1, hitting 13 home runs in just 36 offensive innings. In 2026, there was no better park for hitters than Sutter Health Park, and the question I ask myself here is what would have happened to Houston’s pitching if they were the ones who had to face half of the season’s games playing there.

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44). Mandatory Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Of course, we cannot answer that beyond the results we saw this year, although the Athletics only managed three home runs in 146 plate appearances. But obviously, if the Astros played there, they would face all the other teams.

Now, the point here is that Houston had many pitching issues in 2026, as its starters finished allowing a 12.8% home run-per-fly-ball rate, the second-highest allowed by an American League team this year. Who led that negative department?

Yes, of course, the Athletics! The difference was not much — they allowed a 15.1 HR/FB — and the most puzzling thing was that the devastated Athletics rotation finished with a 4.65 xFIP and a 4.53 xERA, averages very close to those of Houston’s staff, 4.52 and 4.65, respectively.

Houston Astros pitcher Tatsuya Imai (45). Mandatory Credit: Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I think the numbers speak for themselves, and the problems require a strategic plan as urgently as possible, since not all the interesting pitchers on the free-agent market have the particularity of being able to fit Houston’s needs. Obviously, this is a time when all teams are trying to work on the most achievable priorities, and realistically, there isn't enough time for Houston to fix its breakdowns before Dec 1. However, a few good moves that they could make and then work harder on the priorities that make it possible to restore effectiveness to the starting pitching and the bullpen.