Three Ways the A's Can Upset Cam Schlittler and the Yankees
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While the A's will be avoiding the New York Yankees' Opening Day starter in Max Fried, their series in the Bronx will begin with an even tougher matchup, as 25-year-old righty Cam Schlittler will get the ball.
In two starts this season, Schlittler has amassed 11 2/3 scoreless innings, giving up just three hits, no walks and has struck out 15. That's an incredible start for any young pitcher, and doesn't provide a ton of leeway for opposing offenses to get a run or two across the plate to even give them a chance. Today, we're looking for a way to give the A's a chance.
His strikeout rate sits at 39.5%, which is closer to what you'd expect from some of the best relief pitchers in the game, not a pitcher with 16 starts under his belt. Just take a look at this Baseball Savant page and try to find a way to beat him.
Even if you get a hit off him, he has a 47.8% ground ball rate, which could lead to a quick double play. So how in the heck can the A's stand a chance against him?
Three ways the A's can scratch across a couple of runs
The biggest factor for the A's bats will be staying inside the zone. That feels like the way to have a chance at Schlittler. His chase rate of 42.9% suggests that could be much easier said than done, but A's manager Mark Kotsay has talked recently about hitting as being aggressive in zones you're comfortable in. If the A's are expanding their zones, they're going to be in for a long night.
If they're able to keep Schlittler in the strike zone, his whiff rate of 30.6% suggests a little more room for success (65th percentile). Of course, from there they'd have to deal with his trio of the four-seamer, cutter and sinker all working off of one another, which is yet another battle to overcome. Guess right and swing hard.
The most straightforward path for the A's to score some runs would be for the offense to continue to wake up and belt a couple of homers. He gave up eight last season in 73 innings of work, so it can happen, and based off that sample from last year, he could be due for one.
The one caveat with this plan is that just one of the A's ten home runs have come from a left-handed bat this season, and that was Lawrence Butler on Friday night. The reason that matters is because the A's will need all the help they can get, and the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium provides some of that needed assistance.
For the A's to have success, look for a lefty to do some damage. While the stats haven't been there early, perhaps a big hit from Jeff McNeil, who spent the first eight years of his career playing for the Mets is what gets the A's offense moving. Of course, Nick Kurtz is another option.
This is also going to be a game of patience, since none of the A's bats have faced Schlittler in his brief big-league career. The first time through the order will be about getting a good look at him and seeing what he has to offer. From there, the hope is that the second time through they'll be able to land a couple of big swings on him and perhaps even give him an ERA.
Who can do damage against Schlittler's three-headed monster?
Shea Langeliers and Max Muncy have handled four-seamers the best on the A's roster, especially Muncy, who has a .545 batting average against them with a 1.091 slug. The one problem with that approach is that the Yankee right-hander has mostly thrown his four-seamers to left-handers, where it's 44% of his pitch mix, compared to 12% against righties.
Tyler Soderstrom (.273) and Lawrence Butler (.333) are the left-handed bats that have had the best success against the four-seamer this season.
Jacob Wilson has been the one to watch out for with the sinker, batting .571 early on, with just a 9.1% whiff rate and a 0.0% strikeout rate. That's important because Schlittler has used the sinker 49% of the time against right-handers, and Wilson has struggled with whiffs and strikeouts a little more this year compared to last. Just not on the sinkers.
In terms of cutters, the A's haven't seen enough this season to have any reliable data, but it is the one pitch that Schlittler throws regularly to both righties and lefties, so the A's bats should be prepared.
One paper, this game should be all Yankees. They have a solid offense that is firing on all cylinders, and a pitcher with a 0.00 ERA on the mound. Plus, they'll be at home in one of the toughest places to play in all of Major League Baseball. Yet, the A's offense starting breaking out over the weekend, and perhaps we see what they're really made of on Tuesday.
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Jason has been covering the A’s at various sites for over a decade, and was the original host of the Locked on A’s podcast. He also covers the Stanford Cardinal as they attempt to rebuild numerous programs to prominence.
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