Why A's Jacob Lopez Cannot Afford Bad Start Against Astros

If Jacob Lopez struggles once again, the Athletics will be in terrible shape entering the offseason.

Aug 28, 2026; West Sacramento, California, USA; Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez (57) reacts to striking out Baltimore Orioles first baseman Coby Mayo (16) during the fifth inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Athletics will need their second-half ace to deliver one more good outing.

Jacob Lopez has been, hands down, one of the best Athletics pitchers in the second half, posting a 2.48 ERA through five starts in the month of August. But recently, Lopez has been an entirely different pitcher, posting a 10.31 ERA in his last four outings. Something is not right and needs to change in his next start vs. the Astros.

What Needs To Be Done?

Sep 19, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez (57) walks to the dugout at the end of the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

No one is asking for a perfect game, much less a no-hitter to end the year for Lopez. All we are asking is that he doesn't lose the game outright, as he did in his last outing. Against the Guardians, Lopez would throw just 2.2 innings while allowing 10 hits along with 10 earned runs.

In the second game of the series, Lopez needs to figure out how to keep base runners to a minimum. Even throughout his glorious stretch, there was still a feeling that an implosion was due simply because he was able to get out of innings by the skin of his teeth. But now that teams are starting to punish him, we need to see more strikeouts.

Sep 2, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Athletics pitcher Jacob Lopez (57) throws to the plate against the Texas Rangers during the second inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In Lopez's last three starts, he has posted a very ugly 13.86 ERA. The main indicator that something was wrong was his low strikeout numbers during this stretch (1.66 per game). To be fair to Lopez, we should not expect his strikeouts to be high, considering he pitched 3.2 innings or less in his last two outings.

Still, we need an aggressive Lopez willing to challenge the Astros. If he can start the first two innings with four strikeouts, there is little doubt that he will have a solid game when the numbers are all tallied. If he fails, it could be a very long night in what is the most hitter-friendly park in the country.

Why the Stakes Are High

Jul 24, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Athletics pitcher Jacob Lopez (57) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If Lopez has a rough outing, the odds that he cracks next season's rotation could fall to nearly 0. But on the other hand, if he is able to come out with a quality start and a win, the chances of him making the cut go up significantly. The only problem is that he could give the Athletics false hope about his play. Which could be even worse.

But if one thing is clear, it is that confidence and momentum are everything for Lopez, not pitch location - just pure confidence. Earlier this season, when he voluntarily sent himself down to Triple-A, it let him reset and become the pitcher that we had gotten familiar with. A good final start could reset that process this offseason and beyond.

Sep 2, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Athletics pitcher Jacob Lopez (57) throws to the plate against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Right now, the Athletics don't have a clear outline of what their rotation will look like next season. The only real constants will be Gage Jump and JT Ginn, but based on Jump's outings before his injury, that might not even be set in stone. Lopez was supposed to be a lock for next season, but this stretch has also raised questions about his role moving forward.

The bottom line is that if Lopez is unable to pitch well in his season finale, the Athletics could be scrambling this offseason to put together a competent rotation. But if he does answer the call, it could give him a confidence boost that could carry well beyond the 2027 season.