Nick Kurtz is Quietly Hitting Like an MVP—Here Are the Numbers to Prove It
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Nick Kurtz is getting hot, folks. In the top of the ninth inning on Wednesday in Seattle, the A's first baseman clubbed a game-tying home run to give his team a chance at sweeping the series against the favorites to win the AL West. Ultimately the Mariners scored a run in the bottom of the ninth to walk things off, but the A's are plenty happy taking two of three games.
The home run that Kurtz hit was his third in five games, and his fourth of the season. On top of the increased rate of homers, Kurtz also has a streak of 13 straight games with a walk. Despite hitting just .241 on the season, his on-base percentage is still .427. That OBP is fourth in baseball, and the three players ahead of him are batting .347, .314 and .295.
While his counting stats aren't near the top of the league just yet, what we saw last year is that he can catch up in a hurry when he gets going. The four home runs, 11 RBI and .849 OPS are what he has before he has truly gotten going. Just wait until the weather warms up and he gets a few more games in the hitter's paradise in Sacramento under his belt.
The early-season underlying numbers are saying that he'll be a force to be reckoned with this season, much like last year. It's just a matter of time.
The numbers say he's right on track
In his rookie season last year, he hit .290/.383/.619 with 36 home runs, 86 RBI and was one of just three players with an OPS above 1.000. He finished at 1.002, and the other two players in that upper tier were the MVP winners, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. The one caveat is that Kurtz only played in 117 games.
Still, dating back to the 2021 campaign, most seasons have ended with only two players with an OPS above 1.000, with the exception being in 2023 when Ohtani (1.066), Corey Seager (1.013) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (1.012) all cleared that mark. Kurtz is in this realm, if he gets enough plate appearances.
Last year's numbers established what his bat is capable of. The question is whether this season is tracking toward the same destination, and that's where things get interesting.
In looking at his Baseball Savant page, there are remarkable similarities to what he was doing last season in these numbers. We have left the years off intentionally to show just how close they are. Take a second, look at them. Which would would you rather have?
If you're taking the bottom graph (good choice) those are this year's stats so far. You can say that it's a small sample size, but this is essentially just adding to the numbers he put up last season, given how similar they are.
His average exit velocity of 98.4 this season is in the 100th percentile, and nearly all of these categories are above the 90th. That's an elite bat.
He's also added some defensive ability to his skill set, currently slotting in the 88th percentile in outs above average with a +2. That makes him a more well-rounded player, and a bonafide MVP candidate if those counting stats end up where they should.
The bonus feature
Ok, now this one is a legitimate small sample size, but it's something we touched on very early this season, too. Kurtz has been hitting left-handers very well this season, which was one of his biggest holes from a year ago when he hit .197/.261/.423 against southpaws, good for an 83 wRC+ (100 is league average).
This year he's 7-for-26 against them with eight walks, good for a .269/.441/.308 line. While the OPS is close enough between those two lines (.749 this year and .684 last year), the big difference right now is that he's hitting for a higher average and getting on base at a 44.1% clip, but the power hasn't kicked in just yet. That will come. It was there last year, amidst the struggles.
With Kurtz's Baseball Savant page awash with red, and with a noticeable step forward against left-handed pitching, the AL Rookie of the Year is squarely on track to be in MVP consideration this season.
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Jason has been covering the A’s at various sites for over a decade, and was the original host of the Locked on A’s podcast. Mason Miller once said he likes Jason's content.
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