This MLB Leading Stat Gives Toronto Blue Jays an Edge To Contend in Postseason

The Toronto Blue Jays are holding onto the second wild card spot in the American League as they hope to win the series against the Chicago White Sox following Saturday’s 7-1 win.

They’ve been as streaky as any team looking to contend across the MLB. When the offense has been on fire, the pitching has let them down, and vice versa.

That pendulum swing has made them hard to read, though they’ve played themselves into being buyers ahead of the trade deadline.

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The Blue Jays will certainly be in the market for pitching help, though star pitcher Max Scherzer is expected to return this upcoming week finally after not pitching since his debut on March 29.

The rotation needs depth to survive the second half of the season and the playoffs due to injuries and lack of production.

Should they be able to make a game-changing move at the July 31 deadline, Toronto may become a very well-rounded team.

Quietly entering play on June 21, the Blue Jays have the lowest strikeout rate (18.0) in the majors.

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MLB insider David Schoenfield of ESPN.com sees this effective strength as what makes Toronto contenders.

His assessment of them overall, however, was a bit curious. He considers them in play for a postseason run but struggles to point out what makes them so.

While searching for that, Schoenfield highlights the defensive prowess of Daulton Varsho and Myles Straw in center field, although Varsho is currently unavailable, along with Andres Gimenez at second base and Ernie Clement at third base. In addition, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on pace for his best defensive metrics.

With 37 defensive runs saved and 13 outs above average, the Blue Jays rank fourth in baseball. They tie for seventh place with their 33 errors.

As he points out with Guerrero, his four defensive runs saved are a career high through 71 games, ending the last two seasons with negative metrics.

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Defensive fielding won’t win a World Series title, especially without the pitching caliber to match.

That makes them difficult to analyze, as does the fact that they are six games above .500 despite being outscored by 14 runs entering play on June 21, as Schoenfield points out.

They did shrink that differential to eight runs with the 7-1 victory over the White Sox.

Adding to the confusion is the fact that they are 7-13 in blowout games decided by five or more runs. Usually, contenders don’t end up on that side of the metric.

But it’s Toronto’s ability in high-leverage close games that differentiates them from falling into that category.

That may be why they lead baseball with the lowest strikeout rate and why that matters for postseason hopes.

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“In the bigger picture, maybe the contact rate will eventually turn into more offense if they can turn more of those balls into extra-base hits (the Jays are just 17th in the majors in isolated power). With just nine home runs, Guerrero is certainly the primary guy to watch in this area,” Schoenfield writes.

That would be a welcome change, as the Blue Jays’ three triple base hits rank last in the MLB. They are eighth-best with 130 doubles.

It’s a curious assessment of the team as it stands, but if they can hold onto that strikeout rate and continue with consistent contact, that bodes well for an eventual offensive breakthrough.

For more Blue Jays news, head over to Blue Jays On SI.