Will Toronto Blue Jays Risk Losing All-Star Slugger in Free Agency?
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Out of the 144 players who have received qualifying offers since the MLB implemented the system in 2012, only 14 have accepted them.
Will Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette be presented with the opportunity to become the 15th?
The Blue Jays’ recent hot streak has thrust them straight into the American League Wild Card mix after being on the outside looking in two weeks back.
Now, they're closer to buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline.
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There are no negatives with success. Toronto should ride their offensive momentum that’s meshed up with solid pitching after trading one strength for a weakness throughout the first months of the season.
However, it might cost them Bichette in free agency instead of recouping assets on the trade market.
Should Toronto Blue Jays Give Qualifying Offer to Bo Bichette?
The Blue Jays have a path to the playoffs if they can remain consistent and match their play at home on the road.
That makes them buyers in the eyes of ESPN's Buster Olney.
Olney joined TSN 1050’s First Up on Wednesday and was confident that general manager Ross Atkins will look to acquire playoff-caliber talent around star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The downside of a postseason push is that Toronto won't get any value back on their impending free agents they could use as assets on the trade market—namely, Bichette.
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They would then risk losing Bichette in free agency while gaining nothing back—unless they give him a qualifying offer.
That's the path Olney predicts they'll take, as he doesn't think they'll get enough back on the market.
Last year's qualifying offer was $21.05 million. Last season, 13 out of 14 players, including San Francisco Giants shortstop Willy Adames, declined the offer.
If Bichette continues producing at the level he's at, he may elect to move on like Adames.
Adames had a career-high 32 home runs, 112 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases in 2024. Adames slashed .251/.331/.462 with a 120 OPS+.
His eight-year career slash line is .245/.316/.455 with a 107 OPS+, 155 home runs, 498 RBIs, and 54 stolen bases.
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In 62 games this year, Bichette is slashing .279/.324/.443 with a 114 OPS+, eight home runs, 35 RBIs, and four stolen bases.
His seven-year career slash line is .289/.331/.464 with a 119 OPS+, 101 home runs, 378 RBIs, and 60 stolen bases.
Bichette isn't producing the same power that Adames displayed in his career-high homers but is on pace for about 21 home runs this year through 162 games.
If he can hit double digits for the first time since 2023, Bichette may view his value as higher than the qualifying offer.
The Giants were also the team that signed the last player the Blue Jays gave an offer to.
Toronto received the 136th overall pick for Matt Chapman, selecting Nick Mitchell, who they used to trade for Andres Gimenez this offseason.
Will the Blue Jays be successful the next time they give one out?
“If he winds up accepting the qualifying offer, then what you can do at that point is that Bo Bichette comes back in 2026 and rebuilds his value at age 28," Olney said. "That’s not an unreasonable path, and there’s not a lot of risk in that for the Jays."
Bichette may see a strong chance of securing a top 10 shortstop contract like Adames if he takes the one-year offer.
It'll be a question of whether Bichette sees a higher ceiling for his value that he can build on in Toronto.
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Maddy Hudak is the deputy editor for Tulane on Sports Illustrated and the radio sideline reporter for their football team. Maddy is an alumnus of Tulane University, and graduated in 2016 with a degree in psychology. She went on to obtain a Master of Legal Studies while working as a research coordinator at the VA Hospital, and in jury consulting. During this time, Maddy began covering the New Orleans Saints with SB Nation, and USA Today. She moved to New Orleans in 2021 to pursue a career in sports and became Tulane's sideline reporter that season. She enters her fourth year with the team now covering the program on Sports Illustrated, and will use insights from features and interviews in the live radio broadcast. You can follow her on X at @MaddyHudak_94, or if you have any questions or comments, she can be reached via email at maddy.hudak1@gmail.com