Blue Jays' Max Scherzer Is Closing In on History Baseball May Never See Again
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Max Scherzer returned to the Blue Jays on Monday two strikeouts from MLB’s all-time top 10 and still searching for proof that his body can hold up.
His first start since June 10 was a mixed bag. Scherzer needed 75 pitches to complete 2 2/3 innings against Washington, allowing one run on four hits and three walks. He still struck out four in Toronto’s 3-2 victory, raising his career total to 3,507 and moving within two of Walter Johnson for 10th place in Major League history.
The outing looked more like another step in rehabilitation than a return to vintage form. Scherzer first missed time with right forearm tendinitis and left ankle inflammation, then returned for one start before back spasms and right thumb inflammation sent him back to the injured list. The thumb required three injections over the All-Star break.
His final rehab start offered a reminder of what remains. Scherzer threw five hitless innings for Triple-A Buffalo, striking out seven on 56 pitches. Monday brought far less command, but he avoided serious damage and left believing his execution would improve.
“I knew it was going to be a little rusty,” Scherzer said. “Every time out, it should be a little bit better.”
Scherzer’s immediate focus is rebuilding rhythm. Every healthy start also moves him closer to a strikeout milestone that reflects a workload modern pitchers rarely receive.
Less a Record Than a History Lesson
The three-time Cy Young Award winner has recorded nine seasons with at least 200 strikeouts. For a full decade, he made 30 or more starts every year. That combination allowed elite production to accumulate before injuries began limiting him late in his career.
Modern pitchers carry smaller workloads because teams have chosen peak effectiveness over endurance. MLB’s average four-seam fastball reached 94.6 mph in 2026, while the average pitcher’s minimum velocity has risen 5.1 mph since 2008.
As Justin Verlander explained, “Everyone is throwing as hard as they possibly can, spinning the ball as hard as they can.” Relievers absorbed a record 42.5% of innings in 2025, allowing starters to attack at higher intensity before giving way to another power arm.
The tradeoff is more dominant stuff in shorter bursts, but less opportunity to build Scherzer’s volume. Teams also know hitters improve with familiarity.
In 2018, league OPS rose from .712 the first time through the order to .786 the third. Former Astros executive Jeff Luhnow summarized the strategy: “If you can face Michael Trout one less time, that’s to your pitcher’s advantage.”
The added intensity carries a physical cost, with pitcher injured-list days rising from 13,666 in 2005 to 32,257 in 2024. Modern pitchers may be nastier at their peaks without lasting long enough to approach Scherzer’s total.
That tradeoff is visible even among today’s best starters. Tarik Skubal led the Majors with 228 strikeouts across 192 innings in 2024. Even at that elite pace, he would need 26 identical seasons to surpass Nolan Ryan’s record of 5,714 strikeouts.
Twenty-five seasons at Skubal’s 2024 total would leave him at 5,700, still 14 short. Modern pitchers can reach extraordinary peaks, but their workloads make accumulating Ryan’s career volume nearly impossible.
Skubal’s pace shows how difficult it has become to approach one of baseball’s most revered records. Scherzer’s place near the top 10 reflects nearly two decades of sustained dominance, a combination of excellence and longevity that has become increasingly uncommon. His place on the list may soon reflect how starters were once used more than a standard future pitchers can realistically reach.
But history will still require more than one healthy return. Scherzer must regain his command, work deeper into games and show that Monday’s outing was the beginning of a rebound. Eight strikeouts separate him from the top 10, but reaching them properly will depend on proving he can once again pitch like more than a veteran chasing a number.
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Wesley Dixon is a sports writer focused on thoughtful analysis, roster-building angles, player development and feature-style storytelling. He has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and the NBA, with work centered on breaking down team direction, player fit and the larger stories behind the game. Wesley is a lifelong MLB fan, following multiple teams throughout the league. He is excited to bring that same detail-oriented approach to On SI.