Toronto Blue Jays Should Not Trade Away These Two Veterans
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You don't trade family.
And make no mistake, Kevin Gausman and George Springer are now part of the Blue Jays family. The royal family, in fact, along with franchise icons like Joe Carter, George Bell, and Jose Bautista.
The Springer Dinger sent Toronto to its first World Series in 32 years. Gausman anchored the rotation to help them come within inches of winning the World Series. They will be Level of Excellence candidates who will return to the Rogers Centre in future years to standing ovations.
Both have warmly embraced the city of Toronto and the country of Canada.
Gausman has made his feelings known that he wants to stay in Toronto, while also recognizing that baseball is a business and that what happens is out of his control.
Gausman falls a couple of months short of being a 10/5 player (10 years of MLB service time and 5 with his current team) and thus has a no-trade list of 8 teams, compared to Springer's ability to veto a trade as a 10/5 player.
The Business End
Many will point out that baseball is a business, as Gausman noted. Don't be naive or sentimental. The Blue Jays need to cash in on expiring contracts to help expedite reloading for next year, if not an outright rebuild.
There is a pending lockout, so don't give me this family stuff.
And the Blue Jays should, if possible, trade veterans like Daulton Varsho, Shane Bieber, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Rogers, and Max Scherzer, if possible. They should even listen to offers for Louis Varland in case they get a Godfather offer,
But there are several reasons why trading Gausman and Springer is actually not good business.
The Prospects They Acquire Are Unlikely To Be Difference Makers
The prospects they would receive in return are not likely to contribute all that much to the Blue Jays future.
J.J Cooper of Baseball America (subscription required) did a study of prospects traded at the deadline between 2015 and 2025. That timeframe somewhat skews the data because prospects traded at recent deadlines are still developing, but he found that more than 4 in 10 never make the Major Leagues, and another roughly 4 in 10 compile less than one career win above replacement (WAR).
For reference, Daulton Varsho's WAR this season is 1.1, meaning fewer than two in 10 prospects traded at the deadline between 2015 and 2025 have even contributed as much to their clubs as Varsho has this season in what all would agree has been a down year.
Only 3.5% contribute more than 10 WAR, which isn't even that high. For reference, Varsho has a career WAR of 18.8. and 12.2 WAR in his four seasons with Toronto.
Toronto's own 2024 selloff is instructive as well. Toronto acquired 14 players who had combined for .5 WAR through two weeks ago, and that generously includes Brandon Valenzuela who was acquired for one of those deadline acquisitions in Will Wagner.
Gausman's recent struggles are not going to help Toronto's return either. In his last seven starts, Gausman has gone 0-6 with a 7.17 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP. He was somewhat better in his last start against the Rays on Sunday, giving up three runs on five hits in six innings, striking out six batters while walking one, which might give other clubs some comfort that he is not injured.
Gausman might have some value as an innings eater, but barring a major reversal of fortune, he is not going to front a rotation in the playoffs like he did last season. He may not even be a playoff starter for his acquiring club.
George Springer's season has been somewhat the reverse of Gausman's as July has been his best month after a very slow start. He fractured his big toe in April after fouling a ball off his foot and has only started looking like himself in the last month or so, with an .833 OPS over his last 30 games. Even with his bat heating up, teams tend not to pay up for a nearly 37-year-old DH with an OPS+ of 93 and an expensive contract.
My assumption would be that Toronto's return for Gausman would rank outside the acquiring team's top 10 prospects and outside the Top 15 for Springer. As rentals having down years with fairly expensive contracts, neither is going to fetch anywhere near what they would have at this time last year.
The Veteran Experience Factor
Dylan Cease and Kevin Gausman were inseparable during spring training, with their conversations focused on the mental side of pitching, in-game adjustments, and navigating a full season. While most of the credit for Cease's season goes to Cease himself, and he also credits pitching coach Pete Walker, I suspect Gausman's guidance played a part as well.
I spoke last year with Triple-A Buffalo manager Casey Candaele, and he noted that Bisons pitchers started throwing more strikes after watching veterans such as Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer during rehab starts. They learned to attack the zone.
Gausman is known around baseball for his leadership and his mentorship of young pitchers. He resurrected his own career by making both physical and attitudinal adjustments and shares advice with young players on grips, mechanics, and what it takes to make it as a Major Leaguer. And even when not actively mentoring, young pitchers can learn through osmosis how he carries himself as a ballplayer and teammate.
Selling Bieber and Scherzer would create a spot for a young pitcher like Spencer Miles in the rotation, and he can certainly learn from Kevin Gasuman.
Springer tends more to lead by example and work ethic, but if the Blue Jays start relying more on young hitters like Yohendrick Piñango, if they fall out of contention, Springer can show these young hitters by example how to be Major Leaguers.
Veteran mentorship can pay dividends for years to come as much as middling prospects.
Future Free Agents Could Be More Likely to Sign with Toronto
There is also reputational value in acquiring future free agents if the Blue Jays are seen as a loyal organization that does not trade away its veterans. The Boston Red Sox were hurt by their propensity to trade away stars in last winter's negotiations with Alex Bregman who insisted on a trade clause and signed with Chicago in large part because he did not get it.
Players consult each other during free agency on how organizations treat their players, and a reputation for loyalty can help during these conversations.
You Never Know in Baseball
While the odds would certainly say the Blue Jays should be sellers, and holistically I would agree with that position, it would not be unprecedented by any means for a team five games out of the playoff race on July 28 to make the postseason. Holding on to Springer and Gausman would increase the Blue Jays' odds of following in the footsteps of those teams.
As we sit here on July 28th, Toronto is five games back of Cleveland for the third wild card spot. Fangraphs gives the Blue Jays an 8% chance of making the playoffs. There are several teams ahead of them, but none are over .500, and if Minnesota, Seattle, or Houston went on a tear, they would likely win their divisions.
It would not be unprecedented, though, for Toronto to make a run. Since 2021, in three of the five seasons, a team with an 11% chance of making the playoffs did so. One of those teams, the 2021 Atlanta Braves, who had slightly lower odds of making the playoffs than Toronto does currently, won the World Series.
On June 24, the Boston Red Sox had roughly the same chance of making the playoffs as Toronto does now. They are now the second wild card.
And if that somehow happens, having two proven playoff performers (especially Springer, whose 23 postseason home runs are tied for third all-time) would certainly help.
The math certainly says sell anything not tied down. But some things are more important than the math - a reputation for loyalty, mentorship, and, of course, family.
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Adam Steinmetz writes about the Toronto Blue Jays for On SI. Adam is also the editor and publisher of the Boston Sunday Sports Section, a weekly digital publication covering the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins. A two-time winner of the Best Collegiate Sports Writer award in Philadelphia, he began his career with freelance work for The Philadelphia Daily News and The Palm Beach Post before building a successful career outside of journalism. He returned to sports writing last year, contributing to Pitcher List—including coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays—before launching Authorenticity on Substack, where he explores the human stories within baseball. The Boston Sunday Sports Section is his most ambitious project — the thinking fan’s modern Sunday Sports Section focused on the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins.