What the Numbers Say About Toronto Blue Jays' Playoff Chances Right Now
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Putting it bluntly, the reigning champions of the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays, still have a long road ahead of them if they want to attempt to defend their crown in this year's playoffs. Falling short of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2025 edition of the World Series, the Blue Jays' backs are against the wall at the mid-point of June.
Toronto hasn't started June the way they had wanted, especially with how well they played near the end of May. Holding a 5-7 record this month so far, dropping two series in a row against the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees, where do the Blue Jays sit right now in the playoff picture?
Playoff Odds for the Blue Jays
Per FanGraphs, the Blue Jays currently have a 39% chance to make the playoffs as of June 15, 2026. Their odds of winning the AL East division are much less, sitting at 1.6%, giving their path to the playoffs by way of the Wild Card, which they hold a 37.4% of making.
Toronto will head on the road to take on the struggling Boston Red Sox, with the series set to get underway on Tuesday night. If there's a time for the Blue Jays to make an increase in their playoff odds, it's right now, especially with some difficult opponents set for the end of the month.
Luckily for the Blue Jays, projections are on their side, as FanGraphs projects the franchise to go 47-43 for the 90 games they have remaining on the schedule. While winning is fun, Toronto will need to exceed those expectations if they want to make the playoffs, as that stretch would give the Blue Jays an 81-81 record at season's end.
The American League is very weak compared to the National League this season, so the land of opportunities is still vividly clear for the Blue Jays to find their way back to the playoffs. With the roster getting healthy, it just takes a few things for this franchise to get on a run as they did in the playoffs in 2025.
One of the biggest factors for the success of the Blue Jays for the remainder of the season is whether or not Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can tap into his power swing again, as the slugger who has averaged 29 home runs over a 162-game stretch in his career has just sent three long balls out in 2026.
If the most dangerous bat in the lineup heats up, accompanied by strong starting pitching and a bullpen that can hold a late-inning lead, the Blue Jays could be a team to watch down the stretch.
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Dominic Minchella is a 2024 Eastern Michigan University graduate with a BA in Communications, Media, and Theatre Arts and a Journalism minor. He covers Major League Baseball for On SI and spends his free time watching games and sharing his insights.