Inside the Numbers Behind the Braves’ June Swoon

It’s been a month to forget for Atlanta, whose lead in the NL East has rapidly shrunk.

The Braves have struggled mightily in the month of June. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Braves have swooned in June. As Atlanta continues to struggle, its lead in the NL East shrinks by the day, with the Phillies gathering steam behind them, trailing now by just 3 1/2 games.

The Braves had been MLB’s best team through the first two months of the season. They were formidable out of the gate, ending the month of May with a 40–20 record and a comfortable division lead. At that time, Philadelphia had only just begun to turn the corner on its woeful start to the season. The Phillies were 30–29, 9 1/2 games back in the division. Since then, the Braves have limped to a 9–13 record in June, while the Phillies have steadily improved, going 17–8 over their last 25 games.

In fact, in June, the Braves’ offense has collectively produced -0.7 fWAR, the worst mark in MLB. Statistically, they’re dead last in the following categories: batting average (.214), on-base percentage (.267), slugging percentage (.334), wRC+ (65), walk percentage (6.4%), runs (74), home runs (19) and wOBA (.266).

To put that into perspective, the Braves hit for a .271 batting average and .336 OBP in March and April, which ranked second and fifth in MLB, respectively. They had 43 home runs in that span, too, which was the third-most in the league. So, what’s gone wrong in June?

For starters, an injury landed Ronald Acuña Jr. on the IL. But that’s just one small part of the disastrous month for the Braves. Some of the team’s key hitters have been in severe slumps throughout June. Drake Baldwin, who had a .884 OPS in 32 games in March and April, and a 1.038 OPS in 16 games in May, has been abysmal at the plate since returning from the IL. In 11 games this month, Baldwin has just two hits in 45 plate appearances. He has the second-lowest batting average (.047) among all players with at least 25 plate appearances in June. The lowest? Another Braves position player, Ha-Seong Kim, who has just one hit (a single) in the entire month across 32 plate appearances. Michael Harris II, who had 13 home runs in the first two months of the season, has also seen his performances dip. He’s hit one home run in June and has a .702 OPS in 19 games.

Their usually stalwart pitching staff has also endured its share of struggles. In five starts this month, Bryce Elder, who had been one of their most valuable players at the start of this season, has been shelled to the tune of a 8.10 ERA. He’s surrendered 24 runs and seven home runs in 26 2/3 innings, both of which are more than he allowed in his first 12 starts of the year. Elder had a 1.97 ERA after his start on May 22. Prior to, and including, that outing, he had surrendered two or fewer earned runs in eight of his first 11 starts. Since then, his ERA has ballooned to 4.01 and he’s allowed more than two earned runs in five of his last six appearances, including four starts with five-plus earned runs. It’s basically a more extreme version of what happened to him in his 2023 All-Star campaign, when Elder entered July with a 2.44 ERA before recording a 5.96 ERA in five starts to begin a disappointing second half.

This month, the Braves have scored more than five runs in just four of their 22 games, and they’ve been held to three or fewer runs 12 times. Compare that to their production through the month of May when they scored more than five runs in 24 of their first 60 games and were held to three or fewer runs only 18 times. Yes, they faced some teams with excellent pitching this month, including the Brewers and Padres, but even against inferior opponents they’ve faltered. This weekend, the Giants, who rank 20th in MLB with a team ERA of 4.31, held Atlanta to just five runs across their three-game series.

Teams slump. That’s just the nature of the game. But as the gap between the Braves and the Phillies continues to narrow, the concerns over Atlanta’s ability to contend for a World Series heighten. No team in MLB reached 40 wins faster than the Braves. Now, both the Brewers and Dodgers won their 50th games before Atlanta. With just a month until MLB’s trade deadline, the lackluster month of June will certainly have the Braves’ front office assessing whether or not it needs to be aggressive on the trade market to help the team right the ship.

In the meantime, they’ll have to lean on veterans such as Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Chris Sale to guide the team through its current rough patch. They’ll start July with a seven-game homestand against the Cardinals and Mets, during which they’ll hope they can find a way to turn things around.

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