Can We Still See Spencer Schwellenbach Pitch for the Braves in 2026?

The short answer for this question is that it's highly unlikely. However, the long answer dives into why the odds are so slim.

Since February, Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach has been recovering from undergoing arthroscopic surgery conducted on his right elbow. It marked his second elbow injury in less than 12 months.

He's been going through a throwing program. As recently as Tuesday, he was seen working out with the other pitchers ahead of their game against the New York Mets. Notably, he still hasn't faced live hitters.

Of course, anything can change at any time. We didn't anticipate Spencer Strider and Hurston Waldrep starting throwing programs this week being in the cards. Time will tell, but there isn't much time to find out.

It's already mid-August. About six or so weeks remain in the regular season. Even if facing live hitters in a sim game, either at Truist Park or down in North Port, happened today, there is little racetrack. Having him as a starter can likely already be ruled out.

At most, he'd probably throw around 30 pitches in a controlled environment. Pitchers may even have multiple sim games. Then, he would head to his rehab assignment, likely first at the complex and then with Gwinnett. That would likely start a few days later so he could get rested.

Even if he ramped up as a long reliever, this time would still have to serve as a spring training. He would have to get the work in that others got in February and March in Graprefruit League games.

We can look to Ha-Seong Kim as an example on the position player side as to what happens when a player doesn't get a proper spring training. His season has been a nightmare. As rough as it's been, it's likely that it would have at least gone much better if he had had the proper opportunity to get ready. This could be the exact same case as with Schwellenbach.

That alone could take a few weeks. By then, the end of the season has essentially arrived. Unless they just to be able to say he saw action this season postseason seedings are locked up, the Braves may decide his time is next season.

Having him pitch in a lame-duck game could be beneficial in another way. It can provide a barometer for where he's at heading into the offseason. That's still on the better end of the scenarios.

It's important to understand why they have to take his preperation for live action at a slower pace. This is restrictly looking at on-field performance in a vacuum.

If he's rushed, he could prove to be ineffective, even if he's healthy by every measure. In turn, that could be costly to the team in games. It's why, when some want to see him thrust into a playoff game the moment he's healthy, it's advisable to pump the brakes.

If Schwellenbach is not ready for a regular-season game, it reduces his chances of being available for the postseason. There is a high risk.

That isn't to say that the right-hander isn't playoff-caliber. His performance before his injuries showed that he was. However, he might not be physically ready for this challenge.

Looking at the situation again outside the vacuum, there is potential for another injury. He may unintentionally push himself too hard if left ill-prepared. That leads to injury, and he could be back to square one. Going back to Kim for a moment, his overcompensation had him back on the injured list. It can happen.

When looking at the big picture, based on what we know right now, it's clear that Schwellenbach's chances of coming back this season are low. It can happen. The odds are greater than zero. Cling to those odds if you wish.

In the end, the Braves are going to do what's best for his long-term health. He's still only 26 years old. He could still get to the other side of this and have a career ahead of him. That can only happen if the right protocols are followed.

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