Braves Comfortable With Risks Coming in Team's 2025 Rotation

Are you a glass half-empty or glass half-full person? Whether you are or not could greatly impact your opinion of the Atlanta Braves rotation entering 2025 Spring Training.

It's clear Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos is a half-full person. That makes sense, because otherwise, he should have added another pitcher to the rotation this offseason.

But he sounds confident he didn't need to.

The Braves will begin the 2025 season with only two starters who were in an MLB rotation at the beginning of 2024. Spencer Schwellenbach, though, who made his MLB debut in late May, is a breakout candidate in 2025. Furthermore, ace Spencer Strider is expected to return "sooner rather than later."

David O'Brien tweeted on Feb. 14 that Anthopoulos said optimism surrounding Strider's recovery from surgery played a role in the Braves not signing a starter this offseason.

Anthopoulos said Strider will throw live BPs and likely get in a Grapefruit League game at some point. Won’t be on opening roster but they expect him back “sooner than later.” Played into decision to not add starter, since they have 4 “locked in” rotation and also high on Holmes.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) February 14, 2025

SI on Braves' Harrison Smajovits summarized this optimism in another way on Feb. 4.

"Strider will jump in and fill Max Fried’s spot in the rotation. Ian Anderson and Grant Holmes will be the top candidates to fill the hole left by Charlie Morton’s departure," wrote Smajovits.

Comparing the Braves rotation from the end of last season, instead of the beginning of 2024, to now is an interesting take. With confidence in Strider's return and in Anderson/Holmes as Morton's replacement, there truly might not be a setback for Atlanta's pitching staff, which was tied for the best ERA in the league last year.

But there's obvious risk with this strategy. Anderson hasn't pitched in the MLB since 2022, and in that season, he was far from the reliable depth starter Morton was last year.

Chris Sale and Reynaldo López, the two 2024 starters who will be on Atlanta's Opening Day roster a second straight year, are also prime candidates for regression this summer. Sale and López each experienced career best years in their thirties during 2024. Although they should still be good, perhaps even great, they aren't likely to combine for a 2.21 ERA again this season.

That's just the beginning of the risks Anthopoulos is taking with the Braves pitching staff in 2025. Strider could suffer a setback, which would mean Anderson and Holmes account for 40% of the team's rotation until he returns.

This is also ignoring the fact that for large portions of 2024, the Braves used a six-man rotation. If they need to utilize a six-man rotation again to increase the effectiveness of their older starters, then Anderson and Holmes will both be starting regularly even if Strider returns within the first month.

I've learn in my short time of covering the Braves not to often doubt how the organization manages their pitching staff. They get more out of their arms, young and veteran, than just about any other MLB team.

But there's no ignoring the risk Anthopoulos is taking with the Braves pitching staff to begin this season. If it backfires, the Braves are unlikely to return to the top of the NL East in 2025.