Brewers-Padres Most Troubling Stat After 2 Games in the NLDS

The Milwaukee Brewers have a two-game lead over the San Diego Padres, but the NLDS isn't over yet.

Oct 3, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; San Diego Padres first baseman Ty France (25) discusses a play where the ball may have hit a wire on the top of the dome of the stadium during the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game one of the NLDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Milwaukee Brewers are in the driver's seat in the National League Division Series, but they cannot take their foot off the gas just yet.

Milwaukee has a day off on Monday and will look to close out the five-game National League Division Series on Tuesday night against the San Diego Padres. Heading into the NLDS, the Padres were the hottest team in baseball. Milwaukee has taken care of business and has found ways to win games, but it can't get cute right now. In fact, there is one troubling stat that could spell trouble for Milwaukee if the Padres wake up in Game 3.

In the first two games of the series, the Padres left 20 men on base (12 in Game 1 and eight in Game 2). Milwaukee has bent, but hasn't broken. The Padres have gotten plenty of men on base and haven't been able to capitalize. But they've been close. The Brewers were a strike away from losing Game 2. Fortunately, Jackson Chourio stepped up and smacked a walk-off single to give the Brewers the win. In Game 1, Ty France launched a ball to left field that looked like it could've been a home run, but Milwaukee was fortunate that it hit the roof of American Family Field and dropped into Chourio's glove.

Ty France is robbed of a potential go-ahead homer as the ball hits the roof and drops back into play 🤯 pic.twitter.com/UkWjHytIEb

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) October 4, 2026

The NLDS Isn't Over Yet

Oct 4, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) hits a base hit during the fourth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game two of the NLDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If France's ball had gone out, then the Padres would've had a 4-2 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth inning.

So, while the Brewers are 2-0 in the series so far, it's not as if they came in and dominated. They have been the more timely team, and that has helped in a series that has been extremely close. Again, Milwaukee has done a fantastic job limiting damage. Guys have gotten on but the Brewers have been able to keep them from crossing home plate. The first two games went Milwaukee's way, but a few base hits could've completely changed things.

That's the thing to watch in Game 3, and beyond if necessary. Can the Brewers continue to limit the damage? If so, the Brewers are going to win the series and advance to the National League Championship Series. But, again, it has been a closer series than you'd think. The Padres aren't out of it just yet. If they can break through and actually start to drive guys in, we'll have a series.