Brewers-Padres NLDS Is Much More Complicated Than It Looks

The Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the San Diego Padres in the 2026 National League Division Series.

Sep 29, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) celebrates with third baseman Manny Machado (13) after scoring against the Chicago Cubs during the seventh inning during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We're at a point in the Major League Baseball calendar in which no one can be underestimated any longer.

Once the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves wrap up their wild-card series on Thursday, there will be just eight teams left alive in the playoffs. In the National League, the clubs will be the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and then either the Phillies or the Braves. In the American League, the four remaining teams are the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians.

The Brewers will begin their playoff run on Saturday against the Padres at home and it's not going to be a cakewalk. If you look at all of the stats from the regular season, on paper it should be a series Milwaukee wins. The Brewers' offense led the league in batting average (.258), on-base percentage (.341) and finished second in runs scored (832). Plus, the Brewers had the second-best team ERA in the game (3.51). On paper, the Brewers should be able to come out on top, but you have to throw everything out in the postseason. But the Padres are the hottest team in the league and can shake things up.

The Padres Are The Hottest Team In Baseball

Sep 30, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado (13) reacts after hitting a single in the third inning against the Chicago Cubs during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Brewers aren't going to be facing some sort of pushover. Although the statistics are in Milwaukee's favor — aside from power — the Padres are the hottest team in baseball. San Diego went 18-6 throughout the month of September. As a team, the Padres led the league with a .281 batting average, stole the second-most bases in the league (29) and simply found ways to win games. The hot streak continued into the wild-card round. The Padres took down the Chicago Cubs, 8-0, in Game 1. Then, the Padres finished off the series in Game 2, 4-1.

The Padres are a team that's loaded with superstar talent and is going to come at you fast. In Game 1 against the Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado both bashed homers in the first inning and the Padres rode that momentum to the lopsided win. By pretty much every statistical measurement, the Brewers are the better team on paper. But crazy things happen in the playoffs. The Padres are the hottest team in the league right now and Milwaukee cannot take its foot off the gas for even a second.

The Brewers are a force to be reckoned with themselves. It's going to be a fun series, but Milwaukee has to take Padres seriously. If not, San Diego could surprise some people.