Cardinals Playoff Run? What Needs to Happen for St. Louis to Shock MLB

There are few people who can claim to say that they expected the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals to still technically be in the mix for a National League playoff spot at this point in the season.

The Cardinals entered the 2026 season with little expectation, to say the least. For example, back in March, ESPN predicted that the Cardinals would finish the 2026 season with a 70-92 record. That was a common sentiment coming into the season, but not everywhere. The Cardinals traded Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray and it seemed like everyone just expected St. Louis to be close to the bottom of the standings.

Instead, the Cardinals are 70-70 after taking the first two games of a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers, despite the fact that Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt, and Blaze Jordan are on the Injured List, along with Andre Pallante and Hunter Dobbins. This team simply doesn't quit. So much so that while it's unlikely that the Cardinals will make the playoffs this year, we have to at least think about the possibility.

Right now, the Cardinals are 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with the Miami Marlins and the San Diego Padres ahead of the Cardinals on the outside looking in. The Philadelphia Phillies have the top Wild Card spot, followed by the Chicago Cubs at No. 2 and the Arizona Diamondbacks at No. 3.

The Cardinals Aren't Out Of It Yet

Sep 2, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jose Fermin (15) is greeted after scoring a run during the tenth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For the Cardinals to actually make the playoffs, they need to jump the Marlins, Padres in the standings, plus very likely the Diamondbacks. Right now, Arizona has the No. 3 Wild Card spot and the Cubs are 4 1/2 games ahead with the No. 2 spot. It would be a surprise to see the Cubs blow the lead and drop to No. 3. No matter what, though, the Cardinals need to jump three teams over the next 22 games.

One thing that is working in the Cardinals' favor is the fact that they have a light schedule the rest of the way, at least on paper. After the Cardinals face the Dodgers on Thursday, they won't play another team above .500 until Sep. 11, when they begin a three-game series against the 73-66 Chicago White Sox. After that series, they won't face another team above .500 until the final series of the season against the Milwaukee Brewers from Sep. 25 through Sep. 27.

So, of the Cardinals' final 22 games, only seven will be against teams with a winning record right now. In comparison, the Marlins have the fourth-highest strength of schedule remaining. The Padres and Diamondbacks both have 12 games left against clubs with winning records.

While unlikely, the Cardinals aren't out of it yet.

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