Contender or Pretender? Evaluating Whether Five Pleasant MLB Surprises Are for Real

If one word could sum up the 2026 MLB season thus far, it would be surprising. There have been surprises, both pleasant and unpleasant, in terms of individual and team performances. The American League-leading Rays, gritty Cardinals, upstart Pirates, suddenly-fun White Sox and division-leading A’s have all raced out of the starting gates while far exceeding any preseason expectations.

And with Memorial Day, long seen as the first evaluation checkpoint of the MLB season, come and gone, now is a logical time to reflect on how real—or not—these hot starts are.

Tampa Bay Rays

Biggest reason why they’re a contender: Elite pitching staff

Rays starters currently own the best ERA in the majors with a staff headlined by February signing—and potential American League All-Star—Nick Martinez, a resurgent Shane McClanahan and the steady Drew Rasmussen. There’s not a ton of bat-missers here but the Rays’ staff has a superpower: the ability to lull opposing bats to sleep. Tampa Bay starters own the lowest average exit velocity and second-lowest hard-hit rate against this season.

Biggest reason why they’re not a contender: Lack of the long ball

Chicks—and evidently, World Series winners—dig the long ball. In baseball’s age of barrels and exit velocity, it’s never been more important to square up the ball and hit it out of the park, particularly when the games tighten up and teams start going to their high-octane bullpens come October. The Rays are making small ball cool again, but such an approach has come at the expense of taters. Tampa Bay has clubbed the third-fewest home runs in MLB.

Final verdict: Contender

Home runs be darned! The Rays, owners of the best record in the AL, strike me as a cross between last year’s Blue Jays and Brewers. They possess a strong starting pitching staff (like last year’s Brewers), they have a Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-esque thumper in the middle of the lineup in Junior Caminero (like last year’s Blue Jays) and they have an uncanny ability to put bat to ball and pressure opposing teams in the field and on the base paths (like last year’s Blue Jays). That’s a contender, particularly in a weak AL.

St. Louis Cardinals

Biggest reason why they’re a contender: The youth has arrived

In moving away from veteran players in recent seasons, the Cardinals’ ushering in of younger players seemed to signal that 2026 was a rebuilding year. Then, a funny thing happened. The youthful players grew up ahead of schedule. From National League Rookie of the Year hopeful JJ Wetherholt (leads all NL rookies in fWAR) to late bloomer Jordan Walker (172 wRC+) to young ace Michael McGreevy (2.40 ERA), the Cardinals’ kids have been front-and-center on one of baseball’s biggest surprises in 2026. They’re building a winning pedigree too, as they’ve delivered multiple come-from-behind wins and own MLB’s best combined record in one-run and extra-inning games, as well as the second-best record against winning teams.

Biggest reason why they’re not a contender: Lack of pitching depth

Behind McGreevy is a decidedly below average pitching rotation, even though Dustin May has pitched better than his bloated ERA would suggest. And the bullpen, besides closer Riley O’Brien and lefty stopper JoJo Romero, has few bright spots. Plus, Cardinals hurlers have posted the second-lowest strikeout rate, third-highest average exit velocity against and highest hard-hit rate against, a bad combination.

Final verdict: Pretender

It pains me to say this because the Cardinals have been so fun—tarps off anyone? But I just don’t think St. Louis has the pitching to contend long-term in the NL Central, never mind the loaded National League. And even if the Cardinals are still in contention come August, I can’t see Chaim Bloom trading away valuable prospects from baseball’s fourth-best farm system for a rental arm in a season where the team is ahead of schedule. Make no mistake, though. The future is bright in St. Louis.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Biggest reason why they’re a contender: A productive lineup to match their elite pitching

Yinzers have had to suffer through watching a bottom-10 offense in each of the last five seasons. But no more! No lineup has been more improved than Pittsburgh’s in 2026, which benefited from the additions of battle-tested bats in Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn (and is still waiting for Marcell Ozuna to heat up). Feast your eyes on the improvements.

Note: Stats are up to Memorial Day games.

Here's how stark the hitting improvements have been in Pittsburgh compared to last season.

Year	Runs Per Game (Rank)	wRC+ (Rank)	Expected Slugging Percentage (Rank)
2025	3.60 (30th)	82 (29th)	.383 (28th)
2026	4.83 (5th)	103 (11th)	.397 (16th)

Biggest reason why they’re not a contender: A leaky bullpen

Pittsburgh’s starters own a 3.60 ERA, seventh in baseball. Pittsburgh’s relievers own a 4.21 ERA, 18th in baseball. Unfortunately, the discrepancy has become even more pronounced as of late, as the Pirates’ pen owns a bloated 5.21 ERA and has blown four saves since the start of May, leading the front office to do some roster shuffling. If something is going to hold the Pirates back, it’ll be the bullpen.

Final verdict: Contender

The Pirates play in the toughest division in baseball, in the tougher of the two leagues. And they currently have a worse record than the Cardinals, whom I’ve dubbed a pretender. But outside of the Brewers, Pittsburgh boasts the best starting pitching staff in the division, possesses an ace in Paul Skenes who can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the majors, and has a much-improved offense that will make all the difference.

Chicago White Sox

Biggest reason why they’re a contender: Much-improved offense

The White Sox are right there with the Pirates when it comes to improved offense, as the club collectively is barreling the ball at a better rate, hitting the ball harder and pulling the ball in the air more, resulting in a slugging percentage that is almost 70 percentage points higher than last season’s. The White Sox lineup boasts Japanese rookie Munetaka Murakami, among the MLB leaders in home runs, and two other players who have reached double figures in homers in Colson Montgomery and Miguel Vargas. So good has the offense been that it’s helped offset one of the club’s biggest weaknesses.

Biggest reason why they’re not a contender: Unreliable ninth inning situation

Where would the White Sox be if they had a dependable closer? The ninth inning has been a game of musical chairs for Chicago, as five different players have recorded a save. Seranthony Dominguez has been oft-used in the role, though his 4.82 ERA and bloated walk rate have made the affairs far from sure things. Case in point, the White Sox have blown 10 saves this season, tied for the fifth-most in baseball.

Final verdict: Pretender

The White Sox are far from a perfect team. The bullpen has holes and the starting rotation, aside from staff ace Davis Martin, isn’t particularly deep. But when you can slug the ball the way the White Sox have been, and enjoy the benefit of playing in one of baseball’s worst divisions in a weak AL, you have a real shot at the postseason. It's almost impossible to write them off given the state of the AL. That said, I believe the White Sox will have a difficult time catching the Guardians in the AL Central, and they may have more competition from the likes of the Blue Jays, Twins, Rangers, Mariners and A’s for a wild card spot.

Athletics

Biggest reason why they’re a contender: A 1–2 punch atop the lineup

The Athletics boast arguably the best 1-2 punch in a batting order in MLB in underrated MVP candidate Shea Langeliers and 2025 AL Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, each of whom is sporting a wRC+ north of 150. The powerful duo have helped the A’s score the 11th most runs in the sport, despite the club getting minimal production out of expected key contributors in Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler and Jacob Wilson. One shudders to think what the lineup could look like at its full potential.

Biggest reason why they’re not a contender: Pesky home/road splits

The biggest reason why the A’s may not be a contender may be a circumstance wrought of the organization’s own doing. The A’s are a completely different team playing away from Sutter Health Park, their current minor league home in Sacramento. The A’s hit noticeably better at home and pitch better on the road, continuing a trend from last year. They also play better on the road than at home, as evidenced by their 10–12 record at Sutter Health Park and 17–14 record away from home. These dramatic splits are at least partly to blame for the A’s pitching woes, as they’re a top-five staff on the road and a bottom-three staff at home based on ERA. As long as this continues, it’s going to be difficult to look at this team as anything other than mediocre.

Final verdict: Contender

While we’re already a quarter of the way through the season, there’s still a ton of baseball left to be played. That said, it feels like malpractice to count this A’s team out when the Angels are terrible, the Astros look dead in the water and the Mariners and Rangers have been slow out of the gate. The A’s likely won’t be in first place in the AL West all year long, but they’ve done enough to be recognized as contenders for a playoff spot in the weak AL.

More MLB from Sports Illustrated

Add us as a preferred source on Google