Cubs Magic Number Watch: A Look at the Ever-Changing NL Wild Card Race

It's been a rough week for the Chicago Cubs.

A sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday meant four consecutive losses, effectively shutting down the Cubs' dwindling chances at making a run for the division title.

If the focus wasn't already solely on the NL Wild Card race, it sure is now. FanGraphs still gives Chicago a 96.5% chance to clinch a spot in the postseason. But the struggling Cubs have now not only found themselves in danger of missing out on the top wild card spot – they also have the San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks scrapping in their rearview mirror.

As things stand entering play on Thursday, the Philadelphia Phillies hold the top spot, 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs. The Cubs hold a 2.5-game advantage over the third-place Padres, and the Padres are a half-game ahead of the Diamondbacks.

The sliver of good news is that the Cubs hold the season tiebreakers over the Phillies, Padres, and Diamondbacks, and that is huge, should things really come down to the wire.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (five games behind the Padres), the St. Louis Cardinals (6.5 games), and the Miami Marlins (6.5 games) are all on the outside looking in and are running out of time to make a playoff push.

So with two weeks to go in the regular season, the NL Wild Card battle is effectively a four-horse race.

Firstly, what do the Cubs have to do to ensure a trip to the postseason for the second straight year?

What is the Cubs' Magic Number?

Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell, left, is shown during the sixth inning of their game against the Milwaukee Brewers Monday, September 7, 2026 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Cubs are 81-66 following play on Wednesday.

Entering the Cubs' next game on Friday, their magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 11. That means that, as things stand, they must win 11 more games before the season ends to ensure they make the postseason.

To clinch the second NL Wild Card spot, the magic number is 13, and to clinch the top spot and home- field advantage, it's 15. The latter means they'd have to win out as things stand, since only 15 games remain in the regular season. With that said, this obviously isn't a must to earn the top spot, as what happens with their competition will also play a factor in this number.

Remaining Opponents for NL Wild Card Hopefuls

And now, let's take a look at how the remainder of the regular season shakes out for the Cubs and their three NL Wild Card rivals!

Phillies	Cubs	Padres	Diamondbacks
at Braves (3)	vs. Pirates (3)	at Giants (3)	vs. Rangers (3)
at Nationals (2)	vs. Braves (3)	at Rockies (4)	vs. Marlins (3)
at Mets (4)	at Reds (3)	vs. Marlins (3)	vs. Yankees (3)
vs. Brewers (3)	vs. Marlins (3)	at Dodgers (3)	at Rockies (3)
vs. Rays (3)	at Red Sox (3)	vs. Diamondbacks (3)	at Padres (3)

Per Tankathon, Philadelphia has the toughest remaining schedule of the four, with a combined winning percentage of .542. The Cubs have the next-hardest at .518, followed a long way down by Arizona (.494) and San Diego (.480).

Things get even more interesting knowing that a fight for a playoff spot could come down to that final series of the season between the Padres and Diamondbacks in San Diego.

For the Cubs, their journey will commence with a crucial three-game set against the surging Pirates at Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh is 8-2 in its last 10 games and is looking to complete a sweep of the White Sox on Thursday night.

The Cubs will send each of Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, and Matthew Boyd to the mound for the Pirates series, with the need to sweep bigger than it has been all season.

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