The Jarring Numbers Behind One of Nico Hoerner's Worst Cubs Slumps Yet

Nico Hoerner has long been one of the most reliable cogs in the Chicago Cubs' offense.

He's an incredibly disciplined hitter who can make elite contact. Since his debut in 2019, Hoerner's career at-bat-per-strikeout ratio is 8.59, second only to the San Francisco Giants' Luis Arraez (15.36) among active players. His 10.6% career strikeout rate is third among active players.

Just last season, Hoerner finished with the second-highest batting average in the National League at .297. His 178 hits were the third-most in the NL. His OPS+ of 114 was a career-high. He slashed an incredible .371/.424/.457 with runners in scoring position.

The 28-year-old was key to the Cubs getting back to the postseason and making a run last year. And on top of that, he's a two-time Gold Glove Award winner at second base capable of making just about any play in the book.

For the Cubs, it made perfect sense to lock him up long-term, and they did — to the tune of a six-year, $141 million extension. And before the ink could even dry, he was turning in one of the best offensive stretches of his career early this season.

The Hot Start

Apr 21, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner (2) reacts after scoring during the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

In April, Hoerner slashed .300/.376/.464 (.840 OPS) with four home runs and 24 RBI as the Cubs went 17-9. He earned his first career NL Player of the Week honors on April 20.

Hoerner was mainly hitting leadoff, and it was helping the rest of the order catch fire. As a team, the Cubs' 7.3 fWAR on offense was MLB's best in April.

Fast-forward to the present day, and Hoerner is really struggling. His slash line has fallen to .247/.329/.348 (.677 OPS). Entering Wednesday, he was hitting just .206 over his previous 35 games. The Cubs went 13-21 over that span. With RISP, his typical forte, he is just 17-for-72 (.236).

A bit of regression back to the mean was perhaps expected. But Hoerner's production has fallen off a cliff, and the Cubs have too.

What on Earth happened?

The Batted Balls and the Bad Luck

Because baseball is weird, Hoerner has some underlying numbers that just don't make sense when you look at surface-level stats.

For one, his expected batting average (xBA) of .298 is in the top 6% of MLB. The 0.051-point difference between his actual average of .247 and his xBA is the third-largest in the league.

By definition, he's one of the league's unluckiest hitters. He's making a lot of outs that maybe wouldn't be outs for other hitters in other situations. That's what this sport is.

There's also the issue of the kind of hitter Hoerner is by design. For the past three years, his average exit velocity has been in the bottom 10% of MLB. He's making more weak contact this season (4.1%) than last season (3.6%), and he's getting under the ball at a higher rate.

Multiple Cubs who normally hit the ball hard, like Alex Bregman and Seiya Suzuki, are struggling to drive the ball during the Cubs' slump. Is it a hitting philosophy issue? Pitchers in the league are adjusting to Hoerner and his teammates, and they haven't had an answer for it.

The Hit-By-Pitch in San Diego

Apr 28, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; Chicago Cubs shortstop Nico Hoerner (2) hits a two-run double during the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images | David Frerker-Imagn Images

On April 29, the Cubs were in San Diego playing the Padres when Hoerner took a 90-mph fastball to the front of his helmet.

Hoerner wore it like a champ, smiled at the Cubs' dugout, and trotted to first base. He remained in the game. There wasn't any immediate indication that it affected him.

Nico Hoerner shakes off a HBP to the helmet 😭 pic.twitter.com/DYrBsOmPXB
— Cubs Zone (@CubsZone) April 29, 2026

He did, however, miss a game on May 2 after developing neck tightness the day before. He left the May 1 game in the 2nd inning due to that discomfort.

At the time, Hoerner told reporters that he wondered if it was related to the hit-by-pitch.

“I didn’t have anything coming into the field today or anything," Hoerner said to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. "I mean, you get hit in the head two days ago and you kind of wonder, I don't know, if anything’s related. But I had no symptoms from that [during Thursday’s off-day] or anything.”

Hoerner hasn't missed any additional time due to his neck issue since. But the truth is that Hoerner's slump does, in part, coincide with that incident and the subsequent neck tightness he felt.

Since May 1, he's slashing .206/.292/.250 with just 7 RBI in 154 plate appearances. Multiple media outlets and Cubs-related accounts on social media have taken an interest in the topic since last month.

Nico Hoerner’s slump does seem to coincide with this.

31 games before HBP:
.291/.370/.449 (.819 OPS)
4 HR, 26 RBI
12 XBH

35 games after HBP:
.206/.292/.250 (.542 OPS)
0 HR, 7 RBI
6 XBH

Draw your own conclusions https://t.co/Vi2WXxCBrv pic.twitter.com/k8atIfrs8d
— The Windy City Breakdown (@wcb_pod) June 10, 2026

This kind of thing isn't unheard of in baseball. When Anthony Rizzo was with the New York Yankees in 2023, his head collided with Fernando Tatis Jr.'s hip on a pickoff attempt at first base.

Clearly shaken up, Rizzo stumbled for a few feet before dropping to his knee. He exited the game with what the team called a neck injury, but he passed MLB's concussion protocol and returned to the lineup less than a week later.

Yankees Anthony Rizzo was pulled from the game after getting injured tagging out Fernando Tatis Jr. #RepBX pic.twitter.com/jGQJd6htFQ
— Sports Injury Central (@SICscore) May 28, 2023

But Rizzo wasn't the same hitter after that. He went from hitting .303 with an .884 OPS before the incident to just .172 with a .496 OPS after.

On August 3, over two months after his injury, Rizzo officially went on the 10-day IL with a concussion that the team believed occurred in May. A month after that, he was shut down for the season with that same concussion.

Eerily similar to Anthony Rizzo with NYY after he collided with Fernando Tatis on 5/28/23. He passed concussion protocol initially.

Rizzo's stats in 229 PA before the incident:

.303 BA, 61 H, 11 HR, 31 RBI, .884 OPS

And in 192 PA after:

.172 BA, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .496 OPS https://t.co/KNvrKSSiPO
— Zoe Grossman (@zoe__grossman) May 20, 2026

To be clear, this is certainly not to speculate on whether Hoerner is carrying an injury or to equate his situation to Rizzo suffering a more serious injury. It's just a connection that is hard to ignore completely.

Hoerner's defense also has not changed much since the HBP, especially with his advanced metrics — he remains third in MLB among second basemen in both fielding run value (7) and outs above average (8).

The offensive spiral may be purely coincidental. Nearly the entire Cubs lineup has struggled to hit during this cold streak. Hoerner's sticks out because it's not something that has typically happened to him in his career.

Hoerner has had spans in the past where he's struggled. Per Stathead, here are a few of the worst 35-game spans in his career, sorted by batting average. His most recent is highlighted in orange at the bottom:

Table showing baseball statistics — Stathead

Essentially, 2024 was the last time he had a stretch of this nature, but it is pretty close to his worst. He finished 2024 hitting .273 with an OPS+ just above league average at 101.

History says Hoerner will figure it out. He still has a lot of time to. If and when he does, can the free-falling Cubs follow suit? After dropping to .500 on Wednesday night, they sure hope so.

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