Diamondbacks Face Braves in Critical Series at Chase Field

With the Diamondbacks and Braves looking to be competitors in the Wild Card race, this will be a critical series for Arizona to win.

Jul 11, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Atlanta Braves third base Austin Riley (27) tags out Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Alek Thomas (5) in the eighth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Braves come into Chase Field with an 10-14 record. The Braves have climbed back from a horrible 0-7 start to the season, winning 11 of their last 18 games. With Atlanta surging and playing better of late, this upcoming series will be important for the Arizona Diamondbacks to win.

Looking back a year, not taking care of business against the Braves in April ended up being their undoing after Game 162. The Diamondbacks dropped five of seven games, which eliminated them from playoff contention despite both teams having identical 89-73 records.

Injuries

Ketel Marte remains out with a left hamstring strain, suffered on April 5th. He is expected to return in less than two weeks accoring to Torey Lovullo but a specific date has not yet been revealed.

Kevin Ginkel threw a rehab outing with Triple-A Reno, getting up to 22 pitches. It's unclear if he'll have another outing before he's activated from the injured list. Kendall Graveman is expected to throw in an extended Spring Training game over the weekend.

The Diamondbacks are still deciding on the next steps with A.J. Puk. Puk has been out since Friday with left elbow inflammation, and he has gotten second opinions on his Monday MRI from Drs. Neal ElAttrache and Keith Meister.

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The Braves are without their ace, Spencer Strider. Strider completed his Tommy John rehab and pitched in a game this year, but suffered a hamstring strain while playing catch between starts. He was not originally scheduled to pitch in the series.

Braves star right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. remains out as he recovers from a left ACL tear suffered in May 2024. Starter Reynaldo López underwent arthroscopic surgery on April 8th and is currently shut down until July. Reliever Joe Jiménez underwent knee surgery last October and has not pitched since.

Pitching Matchups

Friday, April 25, 6:40 P.M. MST

Game 1 features a matchup of two struggling aces. Chris Sale (0-2, 6.17 ERA) has yet to get more than 15 outs in a start this season, totaling just 23.1 innings across five starts. On a rate basis, he has very strong strikeout and walk numbers, coming in at 29.1% and 6.7% respectively. He's pitched better than his ERA indicates, with a 3.98 xERA and 3.80 FIP, but a .422 BABIP is inflating his totals.

Zac Gallen (1-3, 5.60 ERA) has been inconsistent to start the season. He has two quality starts and in the other three, he's allowed at least five runs each. His strikeout rate currently sits at 23.8%, which is on track to be a career-low. The Diamondbacks need more consistent outings from their Opening Day starter, as they are built with their rotation as a strength.

Saturday, April 26, 5:10 P.M. MST

Grant Holmes (3-1, 3.22 ERA) made the conversion process back to a starter last season and has been one of the more consistent arms in the Braves' rotation. He's coming off back-to-back solid starts, allowing just four runs in 13.1 innings. If there is one issue, his walk rate is a very high 15.1%, and he's giving up a lot of air contact to the hitter's pull field. His 4.52 xERA and 4.24 FIP significantly lag behind his ERA.

Merrill Kelly (3-1, 4.73 ERA) has been strong to start the season. The ERA is inflated from his one disaster outing, which accounts for nine of the 14 runs he's allowed on the season. Kelly isn't missing a lot of bats, with an 18.8% strikeout rate, but he has put together consistent quality starts with three runs or fewer allowed in four of his five outings.

Sunday, April 27, 1:10 P.M. MST

Spencer Schwellenbach (1-1, 2.56 ERA) has been the Braves' best starter this season. He can hit the upper 90s with his fastball with a full arsenal of pitches that includes a sinker, curveball, slider, and splitter. Schwellenbach makes hitters earn their opportunities, with a walk rate of 4.0% on the season.

Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 2.73 ERA) has won four straight starts and has been the Diamondbacks' most consistent starter. Pfaadt has pitched six innings in four of his five starts, leading the rotation in innings. Like Schwellenbach, he doesn't give away free passes with a 4.3% walk rate. One concern has been quality of contact, especially against the curveball, as he's allowed five home runs in 29.2 innings.

Who's Hot, Who's Not?

Corbin Carroll continues to hit the baseball hard on a consistent basis. He leads all major league hitters with 38 batted balls with an exit velocity of 100 MPH or more. Carroll enters the series hitting .321 with an MLB-leading nine home runs.

Tim Tawa has gotten off to an excellent start to his career. While he's only hitting .250, he has four home runs and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 9/7. He's been hitting the ball hard, with four barrels on 28 batted balls on the season.

Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna have been the hottest hitters over the last two weeks for the Braves. Riley is hitting .377 with four home runs and a 1.033 OPS and Ozuna .364 with three home runs and a 1.167 OPS.

Bullpens

The Braves come in with a bullpen ERA of 4.37 and FIP of 4.27, which ranks 17th and 21st in the majors. Their closer, Raisel Iglesias, has struggled on the season with a 6.00 ERA and 7.47 FIP thanks to allowing four home runs in nine innings. Left-hander Aaron Bummer has been one of their most effective reliever, sporting a strikeout rate of 31.7% and a 3.72 ERA.

The Diamondbacks bullpen comes in with a rough 4.29 ERA that ranks 20th in the league. They have blown leads in four of their past six games, including back-to-back games against the Rays. Arizona's bullpen has been stretched thin with three of their last four games going to extra innings. Justin Martinez missed six games with shoulder fatigue but returned in the middle game of the Tampa Bay series.

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