4 Reasons Diamondbacks vs Angels is a Trap Series

The Diamondbacks have to be careful here.

May 24, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) throws against the Colorado Rockies in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Anna Carrington-Imagn Images | Anna Carrington-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are back home this week, coming off a 2-4 road trip to Miami, where they were swept, and Cincinnati, where they took two of three. Their record is 36-35, and they sit 1.5 games out of the third NL Wild Card position.

This week they face the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins at Chase Field. On the surface, this appears to be a favorable set of matchups, and series they should clearly win. The Angels in particular, however, may surprise the D-backs if they're not careful.

Four Reasons this Could be a Trap Series for D-backs

1: The Angels are playing better of late

Jun 13, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels left fielder Jose Siri (28) celebrates a win wtih pitcher Kirby Yates (39) after defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 8-0 at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Angels were on a four game winning streak up until losing their series finale against the first place Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday. They've won five of their last seven games. That includes a 13-5 shellacking of the Dodgers, and series victories against the Astros and the Rays.

Overall, since May 22, the Angels are 12-9 and have outscored their opponents by a whopping 122-91. The only reason their record isn't better is because their very poor bullpen blew three saves during that stretch. They easily could have been 15-6.

The D-backs, meanwhile, have been struggling. They are 5-11 in their last 16 games and have been outscored 79-45. The offense has been in a woeful slump, batting just .199 and averaging 2.8 runs per game during the skid.

The hope is they might be breaking out of that slump after a five-run, three-homer game against the Reds on Sunday. But they were still just 3-for-24 with runners in scoring position, which has been a team-wide issue since late May.

2: Expected Won-Loss and Base Runs

Jun 12, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Geraldo Perdomo (2) and second baseman Ketel Marte (4) celebrate after defeating the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

A team's won-loss record is not always the best indicator of how good they are. Of course at the end of the day the only thing that truly matters is winning games. But determining if a pace is sustainable (good or bad) needs to be looked at under the lens of deeper analysis.

Using Pythagorean Won-Loss, or expected won-loss, based on runs scored and runs allowed show the D-backs with an x-wl of 33-38 due to a -20 run differential. The Angels have a 32-40 x-wl, with a -31 run differential.

Looking at Base Runs standings, the Angels draw even closer, to 33-38. Base runs calculates the number of runs a team would be expected to score and allow based on underlying batting events and taking sequencing (luck) out of the equation.

A team like the Marlins, that has a 39-33 Base Runs record, can often surprise an opponent, like they did against the D-backs last week.

Again, the Angels bullpen is bad. Their 4.81 reliever ERA ranks 26th in MLB. They have an 8-12 record in one run-games, compared to the Diamondbacks 12-12 record in one-run contests. Therein lies the bulk of the difference between the two teams.

3: Starting Pitching Matchups

May 20, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) throws in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images | Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

The starting pitching matchups favor the Angels. Their pitchers not only have the lower ERA across the board in each game, but even their peripheral and expected metrics such as xERA and FIP are superior as well.

Ryne Nelson, in particular, is coming off a disaster outing, having allowed seven runs in four innings against the Marlins. He has been up and down all year, but with 5.19 ERA the down has been more prevalent. It is critical that the D-backs don't go down in the series right out of the gate.

The one saving grace for Arizona in these matchups is they'll face left-hand starters on Tuesday and Wednesday. They're 12-5 when the other team starts a lefty, and 24-30 when they face a right-hand starter.

D-backs vs Angels Starting Pitching Matchups | Jack Sommers

4: Travel Hangover

Jun 7, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Members of the Cincinnati Reds field crew cover home plate during a rain delay in a game with the Arizona Diamondbacks during the eighth inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-Imagn Images | David Kohl-Imagn Images

The Diamondbacks are coming back from an East Coast road trip without a day off to reset their body clocks. The Angels have been in California the past week.

They also got in a little later than planned Sunday night due to a one hour and 12 minute rain delay in Cincinnati on Sunday.

Diamondbacks vs Angels Summary

The Diamondbacks are the home team, and should be able to win this series. The Angels' rough bullpen is the equalizer for Arizona.

Don't be surprised if the Diamondbacks have to play some comeback baseball to win the series. If their offense continues to slump, especially situationally, even the bad Angels bullpen might not rescue them.