Pitchers Duel on Tap at Chase Field Between D-backs and Padres

Ryne Nelson faces off against a resurgent Yu Darvish.

Apr 24, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) throws in the ninth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images | Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a solid victory against the San Diego Padres in which they won 6-2 on Monday night. They will try to clinch the series victory on Tuesday at Chase Field with first pitch at 6:40 p.m. MST.

The D-backs record is 54-59 as they've won three straight games. They're still eight games back of the Padres in the NL Wild Card chase. San Diego is 62-51.

Diamondbacks and Padres Pitching Matchup

Yu Darvish and Ryne Nelson Pitching Stats | Jack Sommers

Just when it looked like Yu Darvish may be headed towards steep decline, he bounced back with an incredible outing against the Mets in his last start. He threw seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits, and needed only 76 pitches to do it.

He had been knocked around in his prior four outings, allowing 17 runs in 16.2 innings on 21 hits and nine walks. Darvish made his season debut against the D-backs June 7 and went 3.2 innings, giving up two runs on three hits and three walks.

Darvish's four-seam fastball velocity average is 94 MPH, and sinker is 93.5. These numbers are just slightly below his career averages.

The amazing thing about Darvish remains his NINE-pitch repertoire. On days he has his best command, like he did against the Mets, he's nearly unhittable.

Ryne Nelson has more than established himself as a bonafide major league starter. He actually did that last year, but due to a crowded rotation to start the season he was the odd man out, relegated to long relief and a spot start or two the first two months of 2025.

That's no longer the case. Over his last nine games, all starts, Nelson has a 1.95 ERA in 50.2 innings pitched. He hasn't actually been quite that dominant as the ERA would suggest however.

His peripheral numbers, including a 3.84 FIP and a 4.16 xFIP suggest he's been the beneficiary of some good fortune on balls in play.

In fact, his BABIP in this stretch is just .216. The numbers over at Statcast produce similar results. His xBA against is .255 compared to .192 actual. Likewise, his xSLG is .431 versus actual .346.

Those aren't bad expected numbers by any means. Nelson has made a very conscious choice to pitch aggressively in the zone, especially with his fastball, and has gotten a lot of weak contact. But he's not getting as many strikeouts as one would expect.

What he's doing is working however, and has since July 2 of last year. Since that date he's thrown 178 innings with a 3.13 ERA.

Diamondbacks Lineup vs Padres

Tonight’s plans.

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— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) August 5, 2025

Ketel Marte is back in the lineup after a day off. Corbin Carroll is 8-for-15, .533 with two homers against Darvish. Jake McCarthy is back in left-field, but he's just 1-for-10 with three walks against the Padres starter.

Diamondbacks and Padres Bullpens

The D-backs had four relievers down and unavailable on Monday night, so Torey Lovullo turned to rookies Andrew Hoffman and Kyle Backhus to give him 3.1 innings of relief. They came through in flying colors, neither allowing a run.

With Kevin Ginkel moving to the 15-day injured list the bullpen has been shorthanded. The four relievers that were down were clearly Kendall Graveman, Andrew Saalfrank, John Curtiss, and Jalen Beeks.

The first of those three worked a lot in the previous series against the Athletics. Beeks' situation bears monitoring. He's only thrown two pitches in a game since coming off the IL, and that came last Friday.

The Padres used two relievers, Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui on Monday. They had to leave JP Sears in longer than was ideal, as the rest of San Diego's bullpen has been heavily taxed of late too.

They should have a full compliment of high-leverage relievers available Tuesday. That includes closer Robert Suarez, and setup man Mason Miller, he of the 103 MPH fastball.