Diamondbacks' Playoff Lives Depend on Upcoming Series With Rockies

It's not a phrase that's often uttered, but it's true: the Arizona Diamondbacks' playoff hopes hinge on their upcoming series against the bottom-feeding Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.

Over the weekend, the Diamondbacks pulled off two comeback victories against the New York Yankees — one in dramatic walk-off fashion, with Arizona's 2001 World Series team in attendance. As such, they clinched a winning record and staved off elimination for one more series.

But there are only six games left on the regular-season schedule. That begins Monday with a three-game set against the Rockies, in a tough mile-high environment.

Diamondbacks' playoff hopes dwindling ahead of Rockies series

Sep 20, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) celebrates a grand slam during the fifth inning catcher Gabriel Moreno (14) and right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) at Chase Field during the game between Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Yankees. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Diamondbacks have not set themselves up with favorable playoff odds in recent weeks. They currently sit four games back of the final Wild Card berth, trailing the Philadelphia Phillies (86-70). The San Diego Padres (87-69) have moved up into the second Wild Card slot.

The Diamondbacks Wild Card Elimination (WCE) number is three. That means Arizona cannot produce worse than 4-2 record in their final six games, regardless of how the other two teams perform.

It also means three wins by the Phillies would prevent Arizona from catching up to Philadelphia, even if the D-backs were to win out.

Arizona can still mathematically catch the Padres, but they'd have to go no worse than 5-1 and win their season-ending three-game set in San Diego to have a chance. If the Padres win two or more games in their next six, Arizona cannot catch them. This is much less likely than catching Philadelphia.

It's not impossible to see the Diamondbacks earn a spot in the playoffs, but the outlook is bleak. If Arizona wants to pull this off, it has to start with no worse than a series win against a Rockies club staring down its fourth straight 100-loss season.

Here's who they'll have taking the mound for this critical series.

Diamondbacks vs Rockies pitching matchups

Tuesday, September 22: RHP Michael Soroka vs LHP Kyle Freeland

Sep 15, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Michael Soroka against the Miami Marlins at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Michael Soroka looked strong his last time out, allowing one run over five innings and punching out six. He allowed only three men to reach base, one being a solo home run. Since returning from injury, the right-hander has sharp, and holds a 3.45 ERA on the season.

Kyle Freeland is having another rough year, with a 6.38 ERA and 4-10 record. He returneed from the IL on September 15 and threw four innings of three-run baseball with eight hits allowed. Arizona got to him for seven runs over 3.2 innings back in May.

Wednesday, September 23: RHP Merrill Kelly vs RHP Mason Adams

Sep 16, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) throws in the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's been a poor season for Merrill Kelly, who holds a 5.00 ERA in 2026. He allowed four runs (three earned) over 4.1 innings in his most recent start. It's worth noting, however, that the veteran right-hander tossed his first career complete game (one earned run) at Coors Field back on May 15.

Adams is a rookie making his sixth major league start. He has a 5.09 ERA in his first five, including a 4.1-inning, six-run affair in his last outing.

Thursday, September 24: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez vs TBA

Sep 13, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (57) throws against the Texas Rangers in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When the Diamondbacks have needed a big-time start, Eduardo Rodriguez has consistently delivered. He has 15 wins and a 2.89 ERA. Unfortunately, his last two starts have been some of his worse performances. He's allowed 13 runs (10 earned) in his last two outings over 10.2 innings.

The Rockies have yet to announce their starter for Thursday's finale.

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