Rockies Pose a Much Bigger Threat to Diamondbacks Than You'd Expect

This year's numbers are actually more concerning than you'd think.

May 13, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte (4) slides into third base during the third inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are about to play three games at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies. After a tough series loss to the Texas Rangers, and a rough recent stretch overall, it might seem as if facing the Rockies could offer a needed reprieve for a struggling D-backs club.

But that is not the case, this year.

Yes, the Rockies sport one of the uglier records in baseball at 17-27. Yes, the level of talent on Colorado's pitching staff is one that might lend itself to some run production by Arizona.

But the Rockies of 2026, though certainly not a contending team, do not look quite like the same team that lost 119 games in the 2025 season.

Here's why:

Rockies present bigger threat to Diamondbacks in 2026

Apr 24, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; Colorado Rockies center fielder Jake McCarthy (31) reacts after hitting an RBI double during the sixth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Coors Field has always been a bit of a challenge for visiting teams. The elevation and heavy offensive environment can often decimate even some of the better pitching staffs in baseball. The Diamondbacks are no strangers to this factor, considering their occupance in the NL West.

But the Rockies' offense, this year, is not simply propped up by Coors Field. Considering the fact that home/road splits are often quite unkind to Colorado, it's actually a weaker split than in the past.

The Rockies, in 2026, have a top-10 offense in baseball at home. They hold a .767 team OPS in Coors Field this year, which ranks seventh. That's nothing new, as they ranked eighth in baseball with a .765 OPS despite their abysmal 2025 season.

But in 2025, Colorado's road-game OPS was an abysmal, MLB-worst .589. So far this season, that number has been an 18th-best .675.

That may not sound like a major upgrade, but it does imply the Rockies are hitting the ball better than they once have, and it's also worth noting that .675 OPS beats Arizona's road OPS (.658), and comes quite close to surpassing the Diamondbacks' overall .686 team OPS.

With no splits added, Colorado's raw team OPS is a 10th-best .714 to Arizona's 24th-ranking .686.

May 7, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen (23) throws against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Now, it's important to note the two teams share an identical 93 OPS+, which is a metric that accounts for park factors and other variables. But while Arizona and Colorado are relatively "even" in this category, those dual 93s are a far cry from their 2025 discrepancy. Arizona ended 2025 with a 109 OPS+ to Colorado's league-worst 80.

But at least the Rockies' pitching is still poor, right? Not quite, comparatively speaking. The Rockies' team ERA is 4.83, which is worse than Arizona's 4.50 by four spots. However, when accounting for park factor, Colorado's 99 ERA+ is eight points higher than the D-backs' 91.

Is it fair to say the Rockies are "better" than the Diamondbacks at this stage? Not exactly. Colorado has a worse record and has seen overall worse results in many categories.

But the issue is simple: the Diamondbacks had a losing record at Coors Field in 2025 (3-4), despite the Rockies abysmal state. Add the improvements by both the Rockies offense and pitching to the concerning regression in Arizona's offense this season, and suddenly a rivalry series already full of unpredictability becomes significantly more dangerous for the Diamondbacks.