Struggling D-backs Righty Can't Afford Another Poor Outing vs Cubs

No one needs a bounce-back more than this D-backs righty.

Apr 13, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in the midst of a tough stretch — there's no way around that harsh reality.

The D-backs have lost five of their last seven games, and are in danger of losing their third straight series on Saturday at Wrigley Field after a failed comeback in Friday's game.

Right-hander Ryne Nelson, who has been knocked around in back-to-back starts prior, is the man tasked with preventing such a series loss. And he can ill-afford to not put his best foot forward against the Chicago Cubs.

Diamondbacks' Ryne Nelson desperately needs bounce-back start

Apr 19, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson in the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Nelson's numbers are not a pretty sight. The D-backs' clear-cut top starter from the 2025 season has not looked like his effective self thus far in the 2026 campaign. In fact, he's struggling at an immense rate.

The right-hander, who held a 3.16 ERA out of the rotation in 23 starts last season, holds a current season ERA of 7.71.

He was blown up for eight earned runs while only recording one out two starts ago against the Toronto Blue Jays, but could not quite engineer a bounce-back start in Mexico City, giving up six runs in five innings on a pair of home runs.

The stuff has not changed. Nelson's premier fastball is still sitting in the upper-90s with plenty of ride. It's still a tough pitch to hit, but not when he's struggling to locate it. An over-reliance on that pitch has worked for him in the past, but he has not appeared to have command of his secondaries to even the necessary minimal degree this season.

That has been the unfortunate calling-card of most of the D-backs' rotation of late: a difficulty with landing pitches for strikes — more specifically favorably-located strikes.

Nelson, though not one of Arizona's pitchers with a serious walk problem this season, has left hittable pitches in the heart of the zone, and they've been punished.

Ryne Nelson's track record vs Cubs

Mar 27, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo (17) relieves pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) in the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Nelson has extremely mixed results against the Cubs in his career, thanks to a pair of lopsided relief performances.

He holds a 6.88 career ERA against the Cubs in five appearances, but has never given up more than two runs in an actual start versus Chicago. In three starts (14.2 innings) he's allowed four total runs.

But Nelson's most recent two Cubs-facing outings were in relief in the 2025 season, and they did not go according to plan. He gave up four and five runs respectively for a total of nine across just 2.1 innings of work.

A sturdy, lengthy start is exactly what Arizona — and Nelson himself — need the most on Saturday.