There Is Little Modern Evidence, If Any, for the Feared Home Run Derby Effect

The Home Run Derby has captivated baseball fans since it was introduced at the 1985 All-Star Game. For years, some of the biggest sluggers in the game have competed by blasting moonshots in an exhibition for slugging supremacy. But not all of the game’s top power bats want to participate.

For years, some in baseball carried the belief that the event wound up warping the swings of those involved. The reasoning was that trying for home runs consistently in a Home Run Derby could affect the mechanics of a player’s swing, leading to worse results in the second half of the season.

Those worries have seemed to subside a bit, but we thought it was worth looking into how the last 10 winners and runners-up have performed for the rest of the year after participating in the Derby.

Here’s what we found.

2015

Winner: Todd Frazier

Frazier was the hometown hero as the Reds’ third baseman participated in the Derby at Great American Ballpark. His first half was one of the best stretches of his career; in 85 games entering the All-Star break, he slashed .284/.337/.585 with 25 home runs, 57 RBIs, a 148 wRC+ and 3.9 fWAR. His hot hitting continued in the Derby, where, as the No. 2 seed, he topped Prince Fielder 14–13, then bested Josh Donaldson 10–9 in the semifinals. He faced off with then-Dodger Joc Pederson in the final and outslugged him 15–14 to win the title.

After the break, Frazier’s production dropped dramatically. Over the final 72 games he played, the two-time All-Star slashed .224/.277/.395 with 10 home runs, 33 RBIs, a 79 wRC+ and 0.5 fWAR. He couldn’t carry the derby momentum beyond the event.

Pre-Derby: .284/.337/.585, 148 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR. 25 HR, 57 RBIs in 85 games

Post-Derby: .224/.277/.395, 79 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR, 10 HR, 33 RBIs in 72 games

Runner-up: Joc Pederson

Pederson was a first-time All-Star in 2015 and made a name for himself during the Derby by besting Manny Machado and Albert Pujols en route to the final. He lost to Frazier and also tanked in the second half. He entered the break slashing .230/.364/.487, with 20 home runs, 40 RBIs, a 137 wRC+ and 2.9 fWAR. He fell apart afterward. He played 62 games in the second half and only hit .178 with a .617 OPS, six home runs, 14 RBIs, a wRC+ of 80 and just 0.2 fWAR.

Pre-Derby: .230/.364/.487, 137 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR, 20 home runs, 40 RBIs in 89 games

Post-Derby: .178/.317/.300, 80 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR, six HR, 14 RBIs in 62 games

2016

Winner: Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton wasn’t an All-Star in 2016, but given his prolific power, MLB offered him a spot in the Home Run Derby. All he did was go out and win the thing in dominant fashion. He hammered balls all over Petco Park, and in three rounds blasted a then-record 61 home runs, besting defending champ Todd Frazier (who also wasn’t an All-Star) 20–13 in the final.

Stanton entered the break having played 76 games at below an All-Star level. He hit .233 with 20 home runs, 50 RBIs and an .823 OPS before the break. After that incredible Derby performance, he dealt with a hamstring injury and only played 43 games in the second half. His numbers fell off a bit as a result. He hit .254 with seven home runs, 24 RBIs and an .800 OPS the rest of the season.

Pre-Derby: .233/.328/.495, 121 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR, 20 HR, 50 RBIs in 76 games

Post-Derby: .254/.322/.478, 111 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR, 7 HR, 24 RBIs in 43 games

Runner-up: Todd Frazier

Frazier hit 25 home runs in the first half of 2016, but his other numbers were not worthy of All-Star consideration. Through the first 86 games, he hit .213 with a .781 OPS. He didn’t improve much after the break. Frazier’s batting average climbed to .240 over the final 72 games he played in, but his OPS dropped to .749. He did finish the season with a career-best 40 home runs.

Pre-Derby: .213/.305/.476, 109 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR, 25 HR, 57 RBIs in 86 games

Post-Derby: .240/.299/.450, 100 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR, 15 HR, 41 RBIs in 72 games

2017

Winner: Aaron Judge

Judge entered the 2017 All-Star break as the best hitter in baseball, and he was still just a rookie. He didn’t surprise anyone by dominating the derby, hammering 47 home runs, and beating Miguel Sanó 11–10 in the final. Through the first 84 games of the season, Judge hit .329, with a 1.139 OPS and 30 home runs.

After the break, Judge slowed down a bit. He hit .228 in the second half and his OPS dropped to .939. He still hammered 22 home runs in the final 71 games and was named the Rookie of the Year and earned a Silver Slugger award.

Pre-Derby: .329/.448/.691, 198 wRC+, 5.8 fWAR, 30 HR, 66 RBIs in 84 games

Post-Derby: .228/.391/.548, 145 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR, 22 HR, 48 RBIs in 71 games

Runner-up: Miguel Sanó

Oh, what could have been for Sanó. The one-time top international prospect looked like the Twins’ next big thing as his prolific power appeared to be a carrying tool. He looked to have put it all together in the first half of the 2017 campaign when he hit .276 with 21 home runs, 62 RBIs and a .906 OPS as a 24-year-old. He lost the Derby to Judge, and his season went downhill after that. After the break, his average dropped to .236, and his OPS fell to .743. He had seven home runs and only 15 RBIs in his final 32 games. Sanó also missed the postseason due to a shin injury.

Pre-Derby: .276/.368/.538, 137 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR, 21 HR, 62 RBI in 82 games

Post-Derby: .236/.312/.431, 97 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR, 7 HR, 15 RBIs in 32 games

2018

Winner: Bryce Harper

Harper’s win over Schwarber in 2018 stands as one of the more dramatic finishes in the history of the event. He trailed, 18–9, with less than a minute remaining in the final round before unleashing an absurd comeback to win, 19–18. He did it in front of his then-home team crowd as a member of the Nationals while Schwarber, his future teammate, was still a member of the Cubs.

Entering that Derby, Harper was up and down in 2018. He hit .214 with an .833 OPS and 23 home runs in the first 94 games of the season. He kicked things into gear after the break, hitting .300 with a .972 OPS and 11 home runs over his final 65 games. Those turned out to be his last games in a Nationals uniform.

Pre-Derby: .214/.365/.468, 118 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR, 23 HR, 54 RBIs in 94 games

Post-Derby: .300/.434/.538, 159 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR, 11 HR, 46 RBIs in 65 games

Runner-up: Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber was already an established power hitter in 2018 when he faced down Harper in the Derby. He hammered 37 home runs in the first two rounds before blasting 18 in the final but it wasn’t enough to overcome Harper’s late run. Schwarber entered the Derby hitting .249 with an .873 OPS and 18 home runs through 83 games. He tanked in the second half and only finished the season with 26 bombs.

Pre-Derby: .249/.375/.498, 130 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR, 18 HR, 41 RBIs in 83 games

Post-Derby: .221/.323/.417, 90 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR, 8 HR, 20 RBIs in 54 games

2019

Winner: Pete Alonso

Alonso was halfway to hitting 53 home runs and taking home NL Rookie of the Year honors when he won the Derby in 2019. He entered the break with 30 home runs and a .632 slugging percentage in his first 89 games. While he beat Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the final, it’s pretty clear the loser was the star of the night given the performance he put on to get there. Alonso topped Vlad Jr., 23–22, in the last round.

After his victory, things slowed down for the Mets star, but not by much. He hit .235 in the second half with an .863 OPS and belted 23 home runs.

Pre-Derby: .280/.372/.634, 161 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR, 30 HR, 68 RBIs in 89 games

Post-Derby: .235/.341/.522, 124 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR, 23 HR, 52 RBIs in 72 games

Runner-up: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero limped into the All-Star Game in 2019 with a .249 batting average, a .741 OPS and only eight home runs in his first 61 games. He proceeded to light up the Derby, blasting 29 home runs in the opening rounds, then going on a lengthy battle against Joc Pederson that he won, 40–39, after a tiebreaker, then a swing-off. He hit 22 more against Alonso for a record total of 91 over the three rounds.

That performance preceded a second-half boost in a down season for Guerrero as he hit .293 in the second half with an .801 OPS.

Pre-Derby: .249/.328/.413, 98 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR, 8 HR, 25 RBIs in 61 games

Post-Derby: .293/.349/.452, 113 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR, 7 HR, 44 RBIs in 62 games

2021

Winner: Pete Alonso

After the event took a hiatus in 2020 during the COVID season, Alonso was back to dominating it again in ’21. He didn’t have the historic rookie season he did in ’19, but Alonso entered the break with some nice numbers, including 17 home runs, though his .803 OPS felt a bit low. He opened the Derby with 35 home runs in the opening round against Salvador Pérez, then topped future teammate Juan Soto 16–15 in the semis. He beat surprise finalist Trey Mancini, 23–22, to become a back-to-back champion.

After the break, Alonso’s bat woke up a bit. He hit .275 over the final 74 games with 20 home runs and a .921 OPS.

Pre-Derby: .249/.326/.477, 116 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR, 17 HR, 49 RBIs in 78 games

Post-Derby: .275/.361/.560, 145 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR, 20 HR, 45 RBIs in 74 games

Runner-up: Trey Mancini

Mancini had a big first half in 2021 that vaulted him into the Derby. He hit .256 with 16 home runs to earn a spot in the contest despite not being an All-Star. He performed well, hitting 24 in the opening round to oust Matt Olson, then eliminated Trevor Story, 13–12, in the semis. He fell to Alonso despite blasting 22 homers in the final.

Mancini’s power disappeared after the break. He only had five in 61 games in the second half as his slugging percentage dropped from .460 to .392.

Pre-Derby: .256/.331/.460, 114 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR, 16 HR, 55 RBIs in 86 games

Post-Derby: .254/.319/.392, 91 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR, five HR, 16 RBis in 61 games

2022

Winner: Juan Soto

Soto had quite a year in 2022 that included winning the Derby and getting traded to the Padres at the deadline. His first half was a bit down as rumors about his future in Washington swirled. He hit .250 with a .902 OPS and 20 home runs. In the Derby, he hammered 53 home runs, and topped Julio Rodríguez, 19–18, in the final.

After the break, Soto struggled to find his power stroke. He hit .231, and only had seven home runs and 19 RBIs while slugging .387 down the stretch.

Pre-Derby: .250/.405/.497, 155 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR, 20 HR, 43 RBs in 91 games

Post-Derby: .231/.396/.387, 132 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, seven HR, 19 RBIs in 62 games

Runner-up: Julio Rodríguez

Rodríguez had an outstanding rookie seasons in 2022, and it got even better as it went along. He entered the break hitting .275 with 16 home runs and earned a spot in the Derby. He hammered 32 homers in the opening round to best Corey Seager, then followed that up by defeating defending champ Pete Alonso, 31–23, in the semis. He came up short against Soto but undoubtedly had the best showing on the night.

After the break, he was on fire. Over his final 41 games he hit .303 with a .937 OPS and 12 home runs en route to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award. The Derby certainly served to boost his profile and perhaps his performance.

Pre-Derby: .275/.337/.477, 137 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR, 16 HR, 53 RBis in 91 games

Post-Derby: .303/.361/.576, 170 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR, 12 HR, 23 RBIs in 41 games

2023

Winner: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladdy Jr. finally won the Derby in 2023, and did it in dominant fashion. He wasn’t tearing things up heading into the break—with a .274 average and 13 home runs in 88 games—but he was consistent before and after winning it. He opened things by blowing out Mookie Betts, 26–11, then topped Julio Rodríguez, 21–20, disappointing the hometown fans in Seattle. In the finals, he took out future Mariner Randy Arozarena, 25–23.

In the final 68 games of the season, Guerrero hit .251 with 13 home runs and his slash line was remarkably similar in both halves.

Pre-Derby: .274/.344/.443, 117 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR, 13 HR, 58 RBIs in 88 games

Post-Derby: .251/.346/.444, 116 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR, 13 HR, 36 RBIs in 68 games

Runner-up: Randy Arozarena

Arozarena had a blistering first half by his standards in 2023. He hit .279 with 16 home runs and boasted a .388 on-base percentage. He topped Adolis Garcia, 24–17, in the first round, then blasted 35 bombs to top Luis Robert Jr. in the semis. He couldn’t keep pace with Guerrero in the finals, however.

The then-Rays star cooled off considerably after the break. Hit only hit .220 with a .331 on-base percentage and seven home runs in the final 63 contests.

Pre-Derby: .279/.388/.467, 143 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR, 16 HR, 58 RBIs in 88 games

Post-Derby: .220/.331/.369, 100 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, seven HR, 25 RBIs in 63 games

2024

Winner: Teoscar Hernández

The 2024 Derby had yet another format change in which the top four performers from the first round moved on to the semis. Hernández was in his second All-Star game and had a solid first half, hitting .261 with 19 home runs and 62 RBIs in 95 games. He hit 19 in the opening round to reach the semis, where he tied Alec Bohm, necessitating a swing-off. He won that, 16–15, before topping Bobby Witt Jr., 14–13, in the final.

Hernández was even better in the second half, hitting .289 with a .902 OPS and 14 home runs in 59 games. He then helped the Dodgers win a World Series title by hitting three homers and driving in 12 runs.

Pre-Derby: .261/.327/.475, 122 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR, 19 HR, 62 RBIs in 95 games

Post-Derby: .289/.360/.542, 148 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR, 14 HR, 37 RBIs in 59 games

Runner-up: Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt had a phenomenal first half in 2024, hitting .323 with 16 home runs and a .927 OPS. He had 20 home runs in the first round of the Derby, then topped José Ramírez, 17–12, in the semis before falling to Hernández in the final.

He came out of the break on fire and was even better than in the first half. He hit .345 with a 1.054 OPS and 16 home runs in the final 64 games. He won the AL batting title and a Silver Slugger award while finishing second in MVP voting behind Aaron Judge.

Pre-Derby: .323/.369/.558, 155 wRC+, 5.6 fWAR, 16 HR, 63 RBIs in 97 games

Post-Derby: .345/.419/.635, 191 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR, 16 HR, 46 RBIs in 64 games

2025

Winner: Cal Raleigh

Raleigh was incredible during the first half last season as hit hit .259 with a 1.010 OPS and 38 home runs. It was no surprise that he won the Home Run Derby, but it didn’t come easy. The Mariners catcher hit 17 homers in the opening round and needed a distance tie-breaker over Brent Rooker to advance to the semis. There he bested Oneil Cruz ,19–13, before taking out Junior Caminero, 18–15, in the final.

After the break, Raleigh’s numbers regressed. He only hit .229 and his OPS dropped to .859, but he did slug 22 more home runs over the final 65 games to reach 60 on the season to shatter the single-season record for catchers.

Pre-Derby: .259/.376/.634, 176 wRC+, 6.2 fWAR, 38 HR, 82 RBIs in 94 games

Post-Derby: .229/.333/.526, 140 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR, 22 HR, 43 RBIs in 65 games

Runner-up: Junior Caminero

Caminero showed a lot of power in the first half of 2025, slugging 23 home runs while posting an OPS of .791. He entered the Derby as a bit of a wild card and hit 21 homers in the first round to advance. He beat Byron Buxton, 8–7, in a weak semifinal before falling to Raleigh.

After the break, Caminero was outstanding. He hit .282 with 22 home runs, 50 RBis and a .926 OPS over his final 63 games.

Pre-Derby: .252/.292/.499, 113 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR, 23 HR, 60 RBIs in 91 games

Post-Derby: .282/.338/.588, 152 wRC+, 22 HR, 50 RBIs in 63 games

Conclusion

After all that digging the only conclusion is that there really isn’t one. Seven out of the 20 players analyzed in this exercise posted a better wRC+ after the second half, while 12 performed worse and one (Guerrero in 2023) was virtually equally productive in each half of the season. Despite that slight point in the favor of the so-called Derby effect, it must also be considered that if a player receives an invite to compete, he likely achieved an outstanding first half—perhaps well beyond his career numbers—and that a regression toward the mean is to be expected in the second half whether or not he participates in the Derby.

It seems the results are less about the Derby than the hitter competing in it.

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