Seattle Mariners Insider Highlights Potential Impact of Julio Rodriguez
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Since he debuted in 2022 and won American League Rookie of the Year, a common phrase has been that the Seattle Mariners go as far as Julio Rodriguez goes. And last season was a good point of reference for that sentiment.
Rodriguez got off to a slow start to begin 2024. And the Mariners ended up blowing a lead in the American League West that was as large as 10 games in June. Right when Rodriguez was starting to heat up in July, he suffered a sprained ankle that kept him out of the lineup for three weeks and out of the outfield for roughly a month. While Rodriguez was working his way back to being 100%, Seattle ended up making a change at manager and hitting coach.
Rodriguez got healthy and surged over the last 34 games of the season. His resurgence coincided with the hiring of manager Dan Wilson and hitting coach (now Senior Director of Hitting Strategy) Edgar Martinez. Over that stretch, Rodriguez hit .313 with nine home runs, 30 RBIs and six steals. The Mariners went 21-13 over that same span, but still missed the playoffs by a game.
JULIO RODRIGUEZ GO-AHEAD HOME RUN! pic.twitter.com/Edi5pC6XUX
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 14, 2024
A slow first half followed by a dominant second half has become an unfortunate staple for Rodriguez since he debuted. And the differences in his numbers were highlighted in a recent analysis article from the Seattle Times' Adam Jude.
Jude posed the question of what reasonable expectations should be for Rodriguez and the offense as a whole. He pointed out the difference between Rodriguez at home vs. on the road and how he's performed in the first 81 games of the season compared to the last 81 in his career:
Rodríguez’s career offensive splits are telling:
Home: .264/.319/.455 (. 774 OPS)
Road: .290/.348/.479 (. 826 OPS)
First half: .264/.322/.418 (. 740 OPS)
Second half: .300/.355/.549 (. 903 OPS)
In the same article, Jude wrote that, according to FanGraphs WAR (fWAR), Rodriguez was one of the four most valuable hitters in baseball over the last 34 games of 2024. Rodriguez had a 1.8 fWAR during that period. The only batters above him were the Arizona Diamondbacks' Eugenio Suarez (1.9 fWAR), Rodriguez's teammate Victor Robles (1.9 fWAR) and the Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani (3.0 fWAR).
Rodriguez's slow start is something that has been mentioned by Seattle President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and General Manager Justin Hollander.
If Rodriguez can play consistently throughout the year or cut the slow start down, then the Mariners offense has the chance to be significantly improved than what it was in 2024.
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