Mariners’ 2027 Arbitration Projections Put Ownership’s Spending Priorities on Display

Keeping the arms is only half the assignment.

Sep 16, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby (68) delivers to the plate during the second inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Mariners’ rotation is getting more expensive and we knew this was inevitable. But ownership needs to budget for better hitters anyway. That’s the conversation Seattle’s 2027 arbitration projections should start. We know that Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo mean a lot to this organization. Keeping them together gives the Mariners a foundation worth paying for and their best chance to win. However, building a lineup that also helps them win requires another investment.

According to Matt Swartz with MLB Trade Rumors’ projections, Gilbert would earn $15.4 million, Kirby $9.8 million, Woo $5.2 million and Miller $3.9 million through arbitration. That’s $34.3 million for four starters, before any other rotation commitments.

Keep in mind these are just estimates, and Miller has an option decision attached to his contract. Still, the figures give us a look at the choices ahead.

Seattle developed pitchers who became valuable major leaguers. Their salaries were always going to follow.

Keeping the Rotation Requires a Lineup Investment, Too

$34.3 million represents those four pitchers’ projected salaries, not $34.3 million in new spending. The Mariners already pay them, so their increases will take up additional room in the budget.

That makes the eventual payroll announcement worth reading a little more carefully. A higher payroll can reflect raises for returning players while leaving the lineup with the same problems. Fans should judge the winter by the roster Seattle builds and the offensive help it adds.

Paying Gilbert and Kirby is a sensible baseball expense. So is acquiring hitters who can deepen the batting order. Ownership’s budget should be about to accommodate both things.

The Luis Castillo trade plays a role here too. Chicago assumed roughly $30 million spanning 2026–27, including Castillo’s $22.75 million salary for next season. The Mariners also acquired Seranthony Domínguez’s $10 million 2027 salary and received cash, complicating the net savings.

We can’t assume the $30 million is an untouched shopping fund for the winter. But the deal created financial flexibility, and the rotation’s raises will absorb some of it. The remaining benefit needs to become visible somewhere on the roster. Meaningful offseason additions would give them something tangible to show for moving a major salary commitment.

The Mariners’ Remaining 2027 Arbitration Projections

Beyond Gilbert, Kirby, Miller and Woo, here are the rest of the projected salaries:

• Brendan Donovan: $6.1 million
• Gabe Speier: $3.3 million
• Patrick Wisdom: $1.1 million
• Matt Brash: $1.8 million
• Luke Raley: $3.1 million
• Eduard Bazardo: $1.5 million
• Jose A. Ferrer: $1.6 million
• Michael Rucker: $800,000
• Dominic Canzone: $3 million
• Cooper Criswell: $900,000
• Carlos Vargas: $800,000

Those 11 players total another $24 million, bringing the full arbitration class to $58.3 million under the listed estimates. There are individual roster decisions to make throughout that list. But trimming a few smaller salaries will only accomplish so much.

The bigger decision belongs to ownership. When the winter is over, the batting order will tell us how seriously the Mariners took the offseason.