Why Jakob Marsee’s Defense Is Sending Marlins Mixed Signals for Future

Two different metrics don't have a good read on what Miami Marlins outfielder Jakob Marsee has to offer them defensively.

Miami Marlins' Jakob Marsee. Credit: Rhona Wise-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There is no need for an advanced metric to see how much Jakob Marsee has regressed at the plate this season. His defense, however, warrants a closer look.

The center fielder currently owns minus-11 Defensive Runs Saved, one of the worst marks in baseball. Statcast sings a very different tune though. There, he has six Outs Above Average, putting him in the 92nd percentile league-wide.

The discrepancy largely comes down to what each metric measures and where Marsee's defensive strengths and weaknesses lie.

A Muddled Defensive Profile

Jakob Marsee celebrates with shortstop Otto Lopez after the game against the Boston Red Sox Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Outs Above Average places a heavy emphasis on an outfielder’s ability to reach and convert batted balls based on factors such as distance traveled, time available and direction of movement. Marsee performs well in those areas thanks to his speed and quick reactions.

Statcast helps quantify those athletic traits. Marsee’s reaction is 1.6 feet above average, while his burst adds another 0.4 feet. The issue comes with the routes he takes to the ball, which grade 1.2 feet below average. Even so, his overall jump remains 0.8 feet above average.

Marsee's routes can be inefficient, but his reactions and athleticism often allow him to compensate. That helps explain why OAA remains so favorable toward him. Defensive Runs Saved, however, evaluates more than just his ability to reach the ball and is much harsher on the rest of his defensive profile.

Marsee has been charged roughly four runs below average through the metric’s range component, but his throwing arm has cost Miami another six runs. Good plays and defensive misplays account for another run below average, bringing the total to minus-11.

These metrics should not be treated as the be-all and end-all of Marsee’s defensive ability, particularly when evaluating his range. Statcast shows that he reacts to batted balls well above average, something also evident when watching him play. Pete Crow-Armstrong provides an extreme example of why individual defensive components require context. Despite his extraordinary range, DRS credits his good plays and defensive misplays at minus-2 runs.

Marsee is obviously nowhere near Crow-Armstrong's absurdly good defense, but the same principle applies. A player can cover plenty of ground while still losing value through mistakes or other parts of his defensive game.

Marsee is probably not the excellent defender his OAA suggests, but he is not the albatross his Defensive Runs Saved total might imply either. Watching him reveals an athletic center fielder with quick reactions, but also one who can take inefficient routes and whose throwing arm creates problems against baserunners. The metrics tell different versions of the story, while the games themselves help complete it.