Kodai Senga's Mets Future Will Be Decided by What He Does in September

With his career in Queens all but over, Kodai Senga has found new life as a reliever. However, he still has a lot to prove down the stretch if he wants to stick around long-term.

Aug 31, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (34) delivers a pitch during the ninth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Pablo Robles-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Has there been a more confusing player over the past several years than New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga? The righty once looked to be the future ace of this team, but has since crashed and burned, before he recently flashed a little bit of hope again.

There was a lot of excitement when Senga first signed with the team, and he backed it up by pitching to a 2.98 ERA in 2023 in a stellar first season in Queens. However, that proved to be the peak with Senga regressing year upon year. Struggling to stay healthy, failing to adapt and adjust to life in the big leagues, and a real lack of consistency were all driving forces behind the downfall.

After the wheels well and truly fell off this year, with Senga pitching to an ugly 9.66 ERA over 31.2 innings as a starter, the former All-Star was moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen. Although the player himself wasn't keen on transitioning to a new role, it was crystal clear to everyone that his time as a starter was over.

Senga has since enjoyed a surprising resurgence as a high-leverage reliever, sparking a conversation that he could take over as the team's full-time closer in 2027. However, as impressive as some of the stats are, Senga is going to need to tick a lot more boxes down the stretch in order to secure a place on the Mets roster for next year.

Kodai Senga must prove he can be trusted in a big spot before his transformation to full-time reliever can be completed

Look, there is no doubt that what Senga has produced out of the bullpen has been impressive. Since becoming a full-time reliever, he has allowed two earned runs on six hits with five walks and 12 strikeouts over 10.1 innings.

Furthermore, he's an impressive 5-for-5 in save opportunities, including locking it down in a 3-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday.

It is easy to see why Senga has found success as a reliever so far. He has two great pitches - his fastball and his forkball - and those will be all he needs to get outs over an inning of work if both pitches are working at full capacity. Senga has shown he can be an elite fireballer and, with one year and $15 million remaining on his contract, maybe there is a world in which he could salvage his Mets career by becoming a high-end option at the backend of the bullpen.

With that said, it'd be wise when assessing Senga's feasibility as a full-time high-leverage reliever or closer to look beyond the stats. For starters, Senga himself has made it clear that he wants to return to being a full-time starter, and that must be taken into consideration. There was some reported interest in Senga at the trade deadline, so maybe the Mets will decide to move him if there's a chance for him to become a starter elsewhere.

New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (34) delivers a pitch during the ninth inning against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

More importantly, though, Senga has yet to prove that he can be fully trusted as a high-leverage reliever, let alone as a closer.

With the season done, Senga is hardly pitching in high-pressure spots right now. That would change in 2027. He hasn't been effective on back-to-back days yet, and that's obviously a huge part of the reliever gig. Plus, Senga struggled with consistency as a starter, so it is hard to know whether he will morph into a reliever who can be relied upon day in and day out.

Furthermore, at times, Senga's location has been all over the place, while his fastball velocity has been down. He's been able to get results, but again, in very low-pressure situations, with wins and losses not counting for anything. While Devin Williams has been disappointing in his first year with the Mets, pitching to a 4.66 ERA and three blown saves, replacing him with Senga in the closer role is hardly the answer.

Ideally, the Mets will be able to go out and sign another closer while transitioning both Senga and Williams to setup roles.

Therefore, if Senga is going to stick with the Mets and rescue his career, he will need to show certain things in September.

He's going to need to prove that he can both pitch on back-to-back days and be effective when doing so. He's also going to need to get his velocity back up, in addition to not losing the zone and melting down.

Crucially, he needs to prove that he can be trusted in big spots in games that actually matter. While that can't be achieved this season, Senga can ease some concerns by stringing together more saves down the stretch while showing improvement in all the areas we mentioned above.

What Senga does down the stretch, and how he does it, will determine what role, if any, he'll have with the New York Mets in 2027.

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