How Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s new deal affects Pete Alonso’s free agency

The longstanding speculation that the New York Mets would make a play for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next winter has come to an end after Guerrero's new long-term deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Guerrero will make $500 million over the next 14 years, which comes out to an average annual salary of $35.7 million.

First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays are in agreement on a 14-year, $500 million contract extension, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. A monumental, no-deferral deal to keep the homegrown star in Toronto for the rest of his career.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 7, 2025

That contract is likely more than the Mets would have been willing to pay Guerrero, so the front office shouldn't be losing sleep over this turn of events. The more interesting question for the Mets, however, is how this impacts the future of Pete Alonso, who can opt out after this season and is off to a flying start in 2025.

THE POLAR BEAR IS GRAND!

PETE ALONSO GRAND SLAM FOR HIS FIRST HOMER OF THE SEASON 💪 pic.twitter.com/APaJElDWoz
— MLB (@MLB) April 1, 2025

Alonso has been the Mets' best hitter so far in 2025, batting .290 with three home runs, 11 RBI, and a 1.066 OPS in his first 31 at bats. The Mets were able to retain Alonso on a two-year, $54 million deal in the offseason that contains an opt-out after 2025, a tool Alonso will surely utilize if he puts together a strong platform year.

The market was surprisingly cold on Alonso last winter, due in part to a subpar year by his standards and the qualifying offer attached to him by the Mets. If Alonso hits the market this winter with a better statistical season, no qualifying offer attached (players can only receive the QO once under the current CBA), and no Guerrero available, he will be in line for a huge deal as the top first baseman available.

Plenty of teams could be in the market for a first base upgrade next winter, so Alonso could have his pick of the litter with a 40-home run campaign. The Mets would also be interested in keeping the Polar Bear as Steve Cohen recently indicated in an interview with Howie Rose.

“We’re open."

Steve Cohen had this to say last month on a potential Pete Alonso extension.

These conversations could become more interesting after Vladdy Jr. got a $500 million extension from the. Blue Jays. pic.twitter.com/dCNkuYwfYz
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) April 7, 2025

Cohen has been comfortable letting his top players hit the market and looking to re-sign them later on, which the team did successfully with Brandon Nimmo after the 2022 season and Sean Manaea last winter in addition to Alonso. While the team has an intriguing prospect for the long-term at the position in Ryan Clifford, Alonso is a strong fit for a team trying to win right now.

Either way, Guerrero's new deal is great news for Alonso, who might get the long-term deal he couldn't land this winter. That deal could come with the Mets, but the team is perfectly content to let things play out like they did a year ago.

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