Mets should fear bust potential of top free agency target

The New York Mets might want to avoid this intriguing target in free agency.

Jul 13, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a New York Mets hat and glove in the dugout against the Atlanta Braves in the eighth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

When the New York Mets front office decides on which positions to prioritize improving during this current MLB offseason, one of the first spots that will surely come to mind is center field.

If Cedric Mullins had performed well in New York after the Mets traded for him at last season's deadline, then it would have been easy to imagine they'd try to re-sign him in free agency. However, Mullins struggled to make an impact, which suggests David Stearns will look to pursue another player at the position.

Read more: Edwin Diaz sends clear message about Mets teammates amid free agency

While center field is one of baseball's weaker positions overall right now, there are still several compelling free agents who can play there. And two of them play for the cross-town rival New York Yankees.

Most Mets fans would probably pick Cody Bellinger as their ideal center fielder to start the 2026 season. However, Bellinger is highly sought after; the Yankees are reportedly keen to bring him back, and he will require a very hefty price tag. But Trent Grisham, his 2025 teammate, should be much more affordable.

Oct 1, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Trent Grisham (12) celebrates his double against the Boston Red Sox during the seventh inning of game two of the Wildcard round of the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Grisham is coming off a career year where he produced an .812 OPS, hit 34 home runs, and tallied 74 RBIs while playing center field for the Yankees. For reference, the last time he had better than a .675 OPS was in 2021, and he had never hit more than 17 home runs in a single season before 2025.

And the 29-year-old chose a great time to have the best season of his MLB career, given that he's now an unrestricted free agent.

Why Trent Grisham is a 2026 Bust Candidate

The Mets have been called one of Grisham's top potential fits by several analysts and insiders, considering their need at center field and Grisham's proven success playing in New York. But they must also beware that Grisham seems poised to regress in 2026 and could even be viewed as a bust candidate.

On Baseball Night in New York, @sal_licata asks @HannahRKeyser if Trent Grisham would be a fit on the Mets pic.twitter.com/wC2EZSE5jG

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) October 10, 2025

While Grisham's underlying stats don't suggest his stellar offensive campaign was a fluke, the bottom line is that he has come close to that sort of power production at the plate. And the fact that he played half of his games in Yankee Stadium, which is the best ballpark for left-handed hitters, factored greatly into his home run tally. In fact, his advanced stats say that Grisham would have only had 24 home runs last season if they were all hit at Citi Field.

Grisham also had the worst defensive season of his career in 2025 and is a below-average baserunner, both of which the Mets are looking to improve heading into next year.

All of these signs point to why the Mets' brass want to avoid Grisham this winter, despite what he did in 2025.