Mets' Starting Pitcher Projected to Have Shockingly Mediocre Season

Which pitcher on the New York Mets isn't projected to have as good of a year as expected?

Jul 13, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a New York Mets hat and glove in the dugout against the Atlanta Braves in the eighth inning at Truist Park. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

With spring training moving along for the New York Mets, the team is getting prepared for what they hope will be a bounce-back season. If they are going to achieve that, they will need some of their new players to perform well.

This winter, the Mets made some significant changes to their roster following a brutal collapse in 2025 that resulted in them missing the postseason. They were certainly justified in doing so, but there was a ton of concern early on in the winter about their lack of action.

Fortunately, as the offseason came to a close, they were able to add some very talented names to fill some of their needs. While the Mets were aggressive in free agency, one of the most notable moves came in the trade market.

The addition of starter pitcher Freddy Peralta was a significant one for the Mets and helped address arguably the biggest issue for the team. In the second half of the campaign, the starting rotation was a mess for the most part. Several starters were plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness, and that was exacerbated by the lack of a clear ace; it was the lack of production from this unit that ultimately cost them a playoff spot. Now, they believe that they have their ace.

However, recent projections from FanGraphs shockingly indicate a down year for the right-hander. 

Freddy Peralta Projected to Have Disappointing Year

New York Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Coming off arguably the best year of his career in 2025, the projections for Peralta don’t look great for 2026. Last season, he was able to total a 17-6 record with a 2.70 ERA across a career-high 176.2 innings pitched, while striking out 204 batters. It was a fantastic campaign, and it is easy to see why the Mets believe that they have a new ace for their staff.

For his projections in 2026, the numbers don’t look nearly as good. The right-hander is projected to have an 11-9 record and a 3.83 ERA. This would be some serious regression for Peralta and likely not what the Mets are hoping for.

When looking at his expected ERA last year, it was still at a very respectable 3.42, indicating that his numbers weren’t too far off. Furthermore, at just 29 years old, there shouldn’t be any sort of age regression.

While coming to New York will be an adjustment, the projections for the right-hander are pretty shocking to see. Hopefully, Peralta is able to prove them wrong and replicate the type of campaign that he had in 2025.

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