New York Yankees rotation injury serves as warning for Mets, Senga

The New York Mets are wisely learning from the mistakes of the New York Yankees as they handle the return of ace Kodai Senga.

Senga, who pitched only 5.1 innings in the regular season after shoulder and calf injuries, is taking it slow so far in Grapefruit League play. The right-hander, who was previously restricted to just bullpens and live batting practice in camp, threw only two innings in his first outing of spring. In those innings, he was restricted in the velocities for his new pitch, a two-seam fastball, throwing it at barely 90 miles-per-hour instead of the usual 95 of his four-seam fastball.

Despite the two scoreless innings on 31 pitches, Senga had not hit the prescribed pitch count for the outing but he was not allowed to take the field for a third inning. Instead, the team sent him to the bullpen to get the remaining 12 pitches needed for his roughly 45-pitch target. Speaking to the media after the outing, Senga was pleased with the restrictions placed on him.

“Just very pleased that I’m able to get out of it healthy,” Senga said through interpreter Hiro Fujiwara. “There were a lot of things that I wanted to try out that I was able to. Just great to be out there.”

Kodai Senga, Wicked 83mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/pNwz19UMrA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 3, 2025

The slow spring build-up for Senga is a smart move for the Mets, who already project to be missing starters Sean Manaea (oblique) and Frankie Montas (lat strain) for Opening Day. Senga being healthy and effective all season is critical for a talented roster that went to the National League Championship Series last season and then added generational free agent Juan Soto to their position player group.

The cautionary tale for how not to handle a pitcher returning from injury is just a few boroughs away in the Bronx, where the rival Yankees are projected to be without reigning Rookie of the Year Luis Gil for multiple months. Gil, who suffered a high-grade lat strain last week, is believed to be out for at least three months with the entire 2025 season in doubt for the 26-year-old.

#MLBNHotStove reacts to AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil being shut down from throwing for at least six weeks. pic.twitter.com/8VZk0QPc4v
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 4, 2025

Gil finished 2024 with a 3.50 ERA across 29 starts, winning the American League Rookie of the Year award over teammate Austin Wells and Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser. But Gil also faded significantly down the stretch, pitching just 49.1 of his 151.2 innings after the All-Star Break and with an ERA over a full run higher than in the first half of the season.

Part of the reason for Gil's second-half slump was his workload. In an era where teams attempt to restrict workload increases to 40% or so of the previous year's innings, Gil's innings jumped by over 3700% year-over-year. After Tommy John surgery shut him down just 25.2 innings into his 2022 campaign, Gil made it back to the mound just twice in 2023, pitching four total innings in Single-A Tampa before the season ended.

Sound familiar?

After a breakout rookie campaign for Senga in 2023, pitching 166.1 innings to a 2.98 ERA, the 32-year-old was limited to just 24.1 combined regular season and postseason innings last year. While holding Senga to a 40% workload increase is not feasible for the Mets, the cautionary tale of the Yankees giving Gil 29 starts (and an additional eight postseason innings) and then losing him for a majority of 2025 has clearly informed the team's thinking this spring.

By minimizing both Senga's innings and the effort and stress by which he pitches, the Mets are doing the right thing for both the player's long-term health and the roster's effectiveness come October.

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