Padres’ Nick Pivetta move could mean Mets unlikely to land Dylan Cease

The New York Mets are unlikely to improve the rotation via trade, so getting their starters to excel is paramount.

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) pitches against the Minnesota Twins during the fourth inning at Fenway Park. | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres signing free agent Nick Pivetta to a multi-year deal last night means the New York Mets likely aren't getting outside help to reinforce the top of their rotation.

The unique structure of Pivetta's new deal - a $1M base salary in 2025 that increases to $19M in 2026 - allows the team to retain both starter Dylan Cease, making $13.75M this season, and Michael King, slated for a $4M salary. Both players are potentially free agents next season if King declines his half of a $15M mutual option for 2026, a move that would allow their combined 2025 salary amount of $17.75M to be reallocated to Pivetta in year two of his deal.

Nick Pivetta’s deal with the Padres has opt-outs after Year 2 and Year 3. The deal will pay him a $3 million signing bonus and $1 million salary in 2025, $19 million in 2026, $14 million in 2027 and $18 million in 2028.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 13, 2025

The deal is widely thought to signal the end of San Diego exploring trades of the two starters, meaning the Mets are unlikely to add either starter to a rotation that's widely seen as a step behind those of division rivals Philadelphia and Atlanta.

There are reasons to believe that the current rotation of the Mets can improve from last season's collective 3.91 ERA despite losing top starter Luis Severino to free agency. Severino, who went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA and threw a complete game shutout against the Miami Marlins on August 17th, signed a three-year, $67M contract with the Athletics in early December.

The first is health. The Mets are hoping for a full season from 2023's top starter in Kodai Senga, who missed all but 5.1 innings of the 2024 regular season to shoulder and calf injuries. Senga, who came back for the playoffs and was battered around by the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, has a plan to stay healthy all season and anchor the Mets rotation.

Read more: Mets’ Kodai Senga shares his blueprint to stay healthy heading into 2025

The second is development. Sean Manaea, who had a career 4.10 ERA upon signing with the Mets entering last season, put up the best season of his career with the assistance of New York's pitching development infrastructure. Manaea, who re-signed with the team for three years and $75M this offseason, gave credit to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and the coaching staff for his mid-season turnaround and why he chose to return to the team.

Sean Manaea's season splits

First 8 games: Last 29
7.96 ERA 3.44 ERA
26 IP 91.2 IP
31 K 97 K
16 BB 26 BB
.988 Opp. OPS .613 Opp. OPS pic.twitter.com/DpD91hh4uu

— The Amazin' Citi (@TheAmazinCiti) January 7, 2024

The early returns on new free agent Clay Holmes are glowing, as well. Already ahead of schedule in his buildup to be a Major League starter for the first time since his rookie season of 2018, Holmes has flashed an improved four-seamer and a new "kick-change" in live ABs this spring.

With Holmes' new arsenal and early shine at spring training, the biggest remaining question for the Mets rotation concerns fellow free agent Frankie Montas. Considered one of the league's rising stars after he finished sixth in 2021's American League Cy Young race with a 3.37 ERA for the then-Oakland Athletics, Montas suffered forearm and shoulder injuries that restricted him to just one inning in 2023. He hasn't looked the same since returning, pitching to a 4.84 ERA last season for the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers.

If the organization's pitching development can work the same magic with Montas that they did with Manaea, however, it's possible that Montas could be the piece that pushes the Mets rotation into consideration with Atlanta and Philadelphia's for best in the division.