Three Players Who Will Make or Break the Mets' Season

Brand new seasons bring brand new opportunities.

For a New York Mets team that went from MLB’s best record at 45–24 in June to missing the playoffs entirely, no team needed a fresh start more than them. President of baseball operations David Stearns made that clear early in the offseason, trading away the longest-tenured Met, Brandon Nimmo, in the first move of what became a sweeping roster overhaul.

Still, Stearns reshaped the roster into one with high expectations yet again. The Mets hold the third-highest projected win total according to FanGraphs at 89.8 wins, with an 80% chance to make the playoffs.

But projections don’t win games. Here are three players who will make or break the Mets’ 2026 season.

Nolan McLean

One of the few things that actually did go right for the Mets last year was the debut of Nolan McLean, and in 2026, he needs to be far more than just a bright spot.

The 24-year-old made eight starts, posting a minuscule 2.06 ERA over 48 innings with 57 strikeouts. But it was not just that McLean succeeded that drew him attention: it was how he dominated.

When watching the rookie right-hander, it is easy to see how differently his pitches move compared to other starters across the league. The break on his curveball and sweeper at times looks like something straight out of MLB The Show.

According to Statcast, his sweeper averages 2,929 RPM, ranking in the top three in baseball, while his curveball averages 3,248 RPM, the highest mark in the league. Opposing hitters managed just a .071 average against the curveball last season, and he pairs it with a fastball that reached 98 mph, making his arsenal especially difficult to square up.

Nolan McLean, 84mph Sweeper and 97mph Two Seamer, Individual Pitches + Overlay

Sweeper= 21 inches of break
Two Seamer=19 inches of run.

THIS IS RIDICULOUS. 😳 pic.twitter.com/ZoE8uZ9pyL
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2025

For a Mets pitching staff that ranked 18th in baseball with a 4.13 team ERA and struggled far more mightily throughout the second half, McLean’s emergence is more than encouraging. It is necessary for their success.

The Mets received the fourth-fewest innings from their starting rotation in all of baseball last season, a glaring issue that consistently forced the bullpen to absorb extra workload and exposed the lack of stability in the rotation. That inability to get deep into games was one of the primary reasons the team faltered down the stretch.

David Stearns acknowledged as much following the season, saying, “We need more innings out of our starting staff. There’s no question about that.” He pointed to inconsistent starts and too many short outings as the moments that “got us into trouble.”

In seven of his eight starts last season, McLean pitched into the sixth inning, showing the ability not only to dominate but to work deep into games. That makes it even more important for him to be the pitcher the Mets saw down the stretch in 2025.

Outside of newly acquired ace Freddy Peralta, the rotation is filled with uncertainty in Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Sean Manaea, and Clay Holmes. New York cannot afford another question mark in the rotation.

That makes McLean’s role even more significant. If he can not only pitch like a frontline starter but also consistently work deep into games, the Mets suddenly gain much-needed stability.

If he cannot provide length, the same cycle of Mets fans entering a season with high expectations only to be met with disappointment could repeat itself once again.

Bo Bichette

After losing Pete Alonso in free agency and trading Brandon Nimmo, the Mets needed more than just another bat. They needed a hitter capable of delivering in the moments those two once thrived in. Bo Bichette’s signing in January was their answer.

Alonso and Nimmo were two of the team’s most reliable hitters with runners in scoring position, each batting over .300 in those situations last season. While the Mets finished eighth in baseball with a .260 average with runners in scoring position, much of that production came from players who are no longer in the lineup.

That is where Bichette becomes essential. He batted .381 with runners in scoring position last season, the best in baseball. He also hit .458 when slotted into the three spot, a role he is expected to hold regularly behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto.

Bichette has led the American League in hits twice before and, when healthy, has consistently been one of the league’s most dependable contact hitters.

Bo Bichette's production with RISP is going to be a GAME-CHANGER for the Mets. pic.twitter.com/vzhxhAtlFg
— SleeperMets (@SleeperMets) February 24, 2026

However, there is risk attached. Bichette is just a year removed from an injury-riddled 2024 season in which he hit .225 in 81 games. The Mets cannot afford that version of him. They need the hitter who thrives with traffic on the bases and delivers in pivotal moments.

There is also the matter of defense. The Mets ranked 21st in Outs Above Average and 19th in Fielding Run Value last season, a clear indication that run prevention was an issue. Bichette will now move to third base, a position he has never played at the major league level, adding another layer of uncertainty.

Run prevention was an area of emphasis for David Stearns this offseason, and he expressed confidence in Bichette’s transition, saying, "When you're moving a shortstop to a different position, they generally have the skills and ability to adapt to that different position pretty smoothly."

The Mets do not need Bichette to be a Gold Glove third baseman. They simply need him to be steady.

If Bichette provides the clutch production he showed last season and handles the defensive shift adequately, the Mets will be a far better team than last year.

Devin Williams

When Edwin Diaz left for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Mets did not just lose their closer. They lost as close to a sure thing as there was in the ninth inning. Devin Williams, who originally signed with the expectation of setting up for Diaz, now steps into that role.

From 2020 through 2024, Williams was one of the best closers in baseball, posting a 1.83 ERA and consistently locking down save situations for the Milwaukee Brewers. However, after being traded to the New York Yankees last season, he looked like a shell of his former self.

In 62 innings, the 31-year-old recorded a 4.79 ERA and blew four of his 22 save opportunities. He was removed from the closer role and never regained his previous All-Star form.

Still, the underlying numbers suggest there is more to the story. Of the 33 earned runs he allowed, 16 came during a five-game stretch. Despite that stretch, he still ranked in the top four percent of MLB in strikeout rate, whiff rate, and expected batting average.

His expected ERA (xERA) sat at 3.02, nearly two runs lower than his actual ERA, indicating that some poor results may have been influenced by tough stretches rather than diminished ability.

Ohhhhhhhhhh baby, Devin Williams is looking GOOD! pic.twitter.com/sNAUr47Nfw
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) March 10, 2026

He now steps into the role Diaz vacated, and that responsibility is a significant one, to say the least. And no, it is not just because Citi Field won’t be hearing Timmy Trumpet’s “Narco” echoing through the stadium in the ninth inning anymore.

Diaz posted a sub-2.00 ERA and converted 28 saves last season. Replacing that level of production is no easy task for any reliever, especially in his first season with a new team.

Williams expressed confidence in his abilities when compared to Diaz, saying, "As far as comparing myself to somebody else, I'm not going to do that. I'm pretty good in my own right. I'm going to go out and be the best version of myself, that's good enough."

Williams has also been working on a new cutter and slider to pair with his fastball and signature “airbender” changeup.

If the Mets want to return to October, they need to know that when they hand the ball to Williams in the ninth inning, the game is secure.

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