Adley Rutschman's Production Pales In Comparison To Many Members Of His 2019 Draft Class

It’s long been obvious that Orioles general manager Mike Elias made an utterly wrong choice with his first every draft selection, taking catcher (though decidedly more of a failing DH) Adley Rutschman over generational shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr.

Witt is better, younger, toolsier, more clutch and more athletic than Rutschman; he hits the post far more frequently, is more clutch than Rutschman and adds a rare element of speed on top of the super hit tool. He is better defensively, oh, and he’s also signed for basically the crux of his career in Kansas City while Rutschman has one more year of arbitration control.

But we’ve known that for quite some time.

“To have a player of his caliber,” Elias said at the time he selected Rutschman, “that I think is not necessarily available every year in the draft, is big for us."

Well Mike, the really uncomfortable discussion is whether Rutschman – a supposedly close-to-ready switching hitting maven from the moment he was selected; a baseball force who could reshape a franchise – is even one of the three best players taken in this 2019 first round. Or four best … Or, gulp.

The numbers don’t paint a pretty picture.

When Elias went with what was considered safe and conservative at the time with this pick – characteristics that would become hallmarks of his passionless and lifeless regime - taking a college catcher, the expectation was he would arrive to the Majors quickly and the key would be to absorb as much of that catching ability as process while he was in his true prime.

That has not turned out to be the case. Not close.

And as we’ve documented, Rutschman hasn’t hit at all since he’s DHed since June 21, 2024 – 1 HR, 17 RBIS in 52 G doing it since then – and he’s DHed more than any Oriole in that span and he has proven to be oft-injured as well.

You Might Want To Cover Your Eyes

We ran the comparable stats on the stathead feature of baseballreference,com and compared Rutschman to the first-round bats that followed him. Here’s how he compares not just to Witt, but Andrew Vaughn, Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll, Shea Langeliers and CJ Abrams:

Player G PA HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB

Witt Jr. 717 3125 118 412 .289 .342 .499 .840 133 1422

Carroll 581 2484 95 293 .257 .342 .489 .831 127 1060

Greene 581 2473 89 309. .268 .339 .455 .794 121 1005

Langeliers 521 2086 109 283 .239 .297 .468 .765 112 890

Rutschman 570 2435 69 277 .254 .342 .415 .756 115 879

Abrams 616 2548 79 277 .253 .313 .426 .739 106 985

Vaughn 729 2876 88 363 .256 .315 .418 .732 103 1093

So he’s fifth in OPS this deep into his career and Abrams is an ascending talent and no one who watches baseball or knows baseball could argue that Rutschman is a more impactful player than the Nationals shortstop right now.

Amazingly, Andrew Vaughn has basically been waived and seemed like a lost cause with the White Sox, and his power numbers still eclipse Rutschman’s and the games played numbers aren’t even close.

They rook Rutschman over Witt, and Witt has played 147 games more than him – that’s getting an entire full year more of service from him … and while you have secured his services well beyond arbitration after drafting him younger. Witt has 680 more plate appearances than him.

As for how clutch he has been, I like to monitor win-probability added metrics. Caroll (12.1), Witt (8.8), Greene (4.0) all rank higher than Rutschman. Total bases matter and he is last among this group and it’s not all that close.

Rutschman vs Wieters

The reality for this franchise is, Rutschman isn’t even the best catcher the Orioles have drafted in the last 20 years. He was supposed to be Matt Wieters with a more accomplished hit tool and even more polished behind the plate.

That simply has not been close to being the case. Rutschman has played 570 games to this point. Here is where they compare that stat point of their career:

Adley: 69 HR – 277 RBI .254/.342/.415 - .756

Wieters: 73 HR – 284 RBI .258/.324/.420 - .744

But that doesn’t even really tell the story, because Wieters was a workhorse behind the plate and the Rutschman has caught less than half of Baltimore’s games since this whole thing started to collapse on June 21, 2024. Wieters is putting up better power numbers despite catching all the time.

Wieters Games Caught: 86, 126, 132, 134, 140 (full season)

Adley Games Caught: 93, 110, 103, 73, 50 (up to AS break)

Take this season out of it. Both players made their MLB debut in late May, so let’s just loo at their first four seasons. Wieters caught 478 games in that span; Rutschman caught 379, and we all know that with barely over 60 games left this season, ain’t no way Rutschman is closing that gap.

The Orioles’ true next great catcher is already on the roster. It’s Samuel Basallo. Who is already doing things with the bat no catcher under the age of 22 has come close to doing in MLB history. His defense will improve while this perpetually rebuilding franchise retools yet again for the future, and Rutschman getting in the way his development makes no sense.

This ian’t Langeliers’s bat we’re talking about here, let alone Witt’s.

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