Four Keys to Baltimore Orioles Must-Win Series vs. Atlanta Braves

For the Baltimore Orioles, Friday marks the start of a crucial series against the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves.

The O’s enter the series with a 50-53 record, three games behind the Red Sox for a third-place spot in the AL East. With August just around the corner, manager Craig Albernaz and his squad hope to secure a .500 record with this series before going back on the road.

The Gunnar Problem

We all know this season has been a rough patch in the career of shortstop Gunnar Henderson. He currently sits at a .701 OPS, a 1.2 WAR, and an average of just .225. However, the former Rookie of the Year is coming off a hot series against the Red Sox where he recorded five hits in 12 at-bats.

If you were watching closely during that series, you’ll notice one key approach that Gunnar made: he hit the ball opposite field. Looking at Gunnar’s stats at home, he only hits the ball to the opposite field 21.6% of the time, and as a result has missed out on many RBI opportunities while trying to pull the ball over the flag court. In Boston, though, he let the ball travel just a little bit more and hit some crucial balls off The Green Monster.

Going into this Braves series will be the perfect opportunity for Gunnar to stick to this new approach and grow stronger in both his mental and physical struggles this season.

Injuries, injuries, and More Injuries

It seems like they will forever be a burden in any O’s campaign. Just this year, the team has faced numerous setbacks in both hitting and pitching talent. As of right now, arms like Zach Eflin and Keegan Akin face Tommy John recoveries while reliever Ryan Helsey is highly unlikely to face another batter this season due to right elbow inflammation, just to name a few.

On the hitting/fielding side, Jordan Westburg is slated to return for spring training 2027 while surprising standout infielder Blaze Alexander is out with a left-hand fracture and is not expected to play again until the end of the season.

The problems don’t end there, with two catcher injuries in Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo adding insult to injury (literally). Both players’ expected return is TBD, so the front office scrambled to find replacements. Their answer was Sam Huff and Chadwick Tromp, two AAA call-ups to hopefully buy some time before the starters return.

Tromp vs. Huff

Pitching game one in the Braves series is Trevor Rogers. He’ll be facing a division-leading lineup holding a 4.28 ERA. However, in his last eight starts, that number is an outstanding 1.69, giving up just 36 hits in 48 innings pitched. There may be a reason behind this that’s not just a hot streak.

In those eight games, Rogers pitched solely to Basallo behind the plate. In his 17 games with Basallo, his ERA is 2.37 with an opponent batting average of just .218. With Basallo injured now, this coaching staff will have to decide who will back Rogers up behind the plate.

Both catchers only have two games with Rogers each, but the stats comparison is staggering. With Tromp, Rogers has yet to give up a run in ten innings. With Huff, Rogers’ ERA climbs all the way back up to a 6.75.

Since his call-up, Sam Huff has simply looked outmatched on the field, not just as a catcher but also as a hitter. He’s hitting .129 in 31 at-bats and is progressively getting worse. Albernaz and his crew must take these stats into consideration and make the right call come tomorrow.

A Hot Braves Team

After a disappointing 2025 campaign, the Braves we all know as a National League powerhouse is back in full effect. They’re led by future Hall-of-Fame starter Chris Sale and veteran hitters in Matt Olson and Michael Harris II, and a promising young catcher in Drake Baldwin, all with an OPS above .830. The team is back on the road after a homestand in which they took three out four from the Padres and two out of three from the Rangers.

While the Orioles’ pitching staff doesn’t have to worry about facing superstar Ronald Acuña Jr., who is currently rehabbing, they still have a lot on their plate. On the road this season, Olson is slugging .579, a number that is practically unheard of in that sample size. In the last 30 days, he has a .913 OPS and is slugging .544. Harris also thrives on the road, batting .311. He hasn’t been as hot in his last 30 games, but that is no excuse for this up-and-down rotation to lose focus.

If the Orioles can fix their top-of-the-lineup struggles and play smart pitching matchups, they have a shot at sending a message to the rest of the league that they can compete with the best of the best.

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