Gunnar Henderson Leading Off Might Not Be For Long. Especially At Camden Yards

It’s far too soon to determine whether Gunnar Henderson’s move to the leadoff spot will alter his season or jumpstart the Orioles lineup.

Basically one week into the experiment, it’s continuing to bring out better on-base qualities in the slugger - although the reality is his walk rate had started to spike back inn early Jone – and he will make a point to see more pitches now.

But the move also has resulted in Taylor Ward (a former 35-homer guy whose power has been sapped as an Oriole) in the three-hole. And with a massive homestand looming before the All Star break and that huge left-field wall at Camden Yards that inept baseball czar Mike Elias built already a plague on what’s left of Ward’s power, rookie skipper Craig Albernaz and this front office better think carefully about the ramifications of their actions.

The reality now is that the Orioles have scored three runs or less in six of their last nine games and four or less in seven of nine and Henderson’s waning power may take a bigger hit batting leadoff. And Albernaz refuses to move Blaze Alexander (the MLB leader in batting average since April 28) up in the lineup and right now, a 21-year-old catcher on an historic tear to open his career, Samuel Basallo, is carrying a lot of weight.

“It just breaks up the rhythm, breaks up the cadence, breaks up the routine,” Albernaz said when he made the change before the White Sox series late last month. “Obviously, both of those guys (Ward and Henderson) have hit in those two spots this year and in year’s past, so not a big change for them. Hopefully it kind of gets something going for us.”

Eh, not really so far. Kinda like everything else with this team this season.

The Pros

As we mentioned, Henerson is getting on base. And he is not pulling the ball as much and he is not chasing as much. All positive trends, but, again, ones that were taking root before the change. It hasn’t brought any power surge – three home runs in his last 35 games since last having a two-homer game – but he has scored a run in five of the six games since moving up a spot and he has a few doubles and a two-walk game.

If there isn’t any boost to the power at Camden Yards – where Henderson should rake but he has basically identical SLG and OPS at home and on the road – this should be scrapped. Love Henderson’s rate of 17 walks to just 19 strikeouts since the start of June, but they needed him to be an MVP-type contributor and now he seems to be on a similar path as Ward, with on-base as the hallmark and not enough of it to offset the other deficiencies.

This is a total stretch, I know, but maybe, maybe (if we squint) we can make the case Henderson’s improved defensive metrics (very strong series at the Reds) could maybe be related to the switch? Yeah, I’m reaching.

The Cons

Well, the move isn’t helping Henderson on the base paths, and that’s one area that should be connected to the switch. Getting picked off again over the weekend, even though Albernaz went to lengths to praise him and try to obfuscate fans again is shameful for a player of this skill and athleticism; so is having seven steals with four times caught stealing, while being picked off five times.

Part of the reason to drop him down the lineup was to take pressure off him; that’s not what comes with leading off. He’s also been a DH just six times, which needs to be happened much more than it has. And Henderson now has a .382 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position, and moving to leadoff won’t boost his RBI chances.

And Ward batting third is kinda silly.

Yeah, I know he’s been hitting leadoff most of the season, but five homers and 23 RBIs this late in the season is ridiculous. This guy had 36 and 103 last year. And at Camden Yards this season he has an unfathomable .262 SLG and .636 OPS. You think he’s turning that around now?

Ward has four doubles at home this season and that’s it in terms of extra base hits. That wall has killed his earning potential in his walk year. Dude has eight RBIs at Camden Yards.

Conclusion

If batting Henderson first means batting Ward third, this is going to be yet another abject failure from the rookie skipper, but that’s also The Elias Way.

If they are wedded to this for the duration of this homestand we suspect it comes back to bite them. If they went: Henderson, Alexander, Rustschman/Basallo, maybe it would make more sense. Alexander leading off merits consideration with him getting on base nearly 40 % of the time for over two full months.

Whatever Albernaz does next better work. The Orioles have been held to three runs or less 29 times since May 1, in the bottom 10 in MLB, and they are 5-24 in those games.

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