How Many Orioles Hitters Have Regressed Since Opening Day? The Numbers Are Staggering

Orioles baseball boss Mike Elias's bid to save his job should include a full accounting of how far most of his hitters will fall from reasonable expectations

Sep 5, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) reacts to a strikeout during the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Of the multitude of ways one can evaluate what a pathetic job Mike Elias has done stewarding the Orioles franchise, merely taking stock of the roster as a lost season winds down is a novel exercise.

We suspect that the billionaires Elias works for are doing none of this, of course, as they have already made a very public and foolish case for keeping him. Elias has already made it clear he is willing to make cosmetic changes and discard some of the key lieutenants he recently promoted to try to maintain power. But as the industry chirps about what a joke the Orioles have become, and their sweeping player development failures are the talk of the league, ask yourself a simple question about the group that started the season in Baltimore:

Of all the hitters who were expected to form the “core” of this lineup – in a franchise in which Elias has pursued and prized power above all else in roster and lineup construction, at the expense of fielding and pitching (and it turns out, even hitting) – who is better now than in spring training? Who has met or exceeded expectations? Which bats have changed your perception of them for the better?

As the Orioles play out their final few series and determine how close to .500 they land after winning just 75 games in 2025, just look at the roster and consider what you thought of these players on Opening Day, and what you think of them now.

Better Than Before

3B Coby Mayo, OF Dylan Beavers, UT Blaze Alexander, C Samuel Basallo

Mayo is an MLB player and the best power hitter in the league against left-handed pitching and he’s improving against righties and could be fine at first base if they want to use Pete Alonso as a DH more as he ages. Beavers is finishing strong, gets on base, could be their lead off guy next year and will have over 20 doubles.

Alexander might end up being a unique utility guy, though it’s doubtful we see anything like what he did from late April til he broke his hand before the All-Star break. But I wasn’t sure he was more than a bench guy when they traded for him. Basallo was the most prodigious power hitting catcher in MLB history under the age of 22 before this lingering shoulder injury took hold, and with their medical record I’m skeptical of how they handled this from the jump, dating back to the overmatched puppet skipper challenging his toughness.

Same As Expected

1B Alonso, OF Leody Taveras, IF Jeremiah Jackson

Alonso is what they bought - hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs and be an amazing dude to be around and a beacon of positivity even amid the dregs of The Elias Way. He’ll be streaky, but that’s sluggers. Better at first base than we could have hoped for

Taveras always looked like a candidate for extreme regression if they over exposed him, and because they can’t develop an outfielder to save their life from within (fingers crossed for Beavers), he got way too much time in the OF and at the plate. Jackson showed better last year than this year, but he’s a AAAA guy good for spurts up here as needed.

Worse Than Imagined

SS Gunnar Henderson, 2B Jackson Holliday, OF Colton Cowser, 3B Jordan Westburg, OF Tyler O’Neill, 1B Ryan Mountcastle  

This is a disaster because the first four guys carried the heaviest expectations of anyone on the roster under the age of 30, and the fifth guy was their highest-pay hitter, by far, until signing Alonso. This is failure, and Henderson epitomizes it and he’ll be gone at some point in 2027 like his boy Adley ‘cuz there’s no contract happening here.

I bought into midseason plate changes with Holliday, hoping against hope my original evaluations of him watching him a ton in the minors were too skeptical. But he is adrift, in the field and at the plate, and needs to be gone too. Maybe packaged with someone like Cowser, a terribly-flawed HR-chasing fourth outfielder, to get anything half decent in return. Westburg’s inability to play even quasi-regularly is a massive red flag now and O’Neill will always be hurt and will never hit consistently with a terrible contract.

This is a mess, Birdland, and ain’t no way feckless Elias will sort it out properly. There are no position prospects remotely close to being ready to help, and they need to find new ways to field the ball better at shortstop, centerfield, left field and second base, for starters in 2027. Hey, at least we’ve got a lockout to look forward to.