Baltimore Orioles Playoff Odds On Life Support After Brutal Start To Season

The Baltimore Orioles have dug quite a hole to climb out of this season.

May 15, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano (19) greeted by catcher Alley Rutschman (35) after the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

There isn’t a team in baseball that has been as disappointing as the Baltimore Orioles during the 2025 MLB regular season.

Coming into the campaign, they looked, at the very least, like a playoff team in the American League. A few tweaks during the season and it was easy to envision them being legitimate World Series contenders.

Entering play on May 16, nothing has gone right for the franchise, who aren’t close to factoring into the playoff picture right now.

The Orioles have a 15-27 record, putting them in the cellar of the AL East, 4.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in fourth place. Only the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies have fewer victories right now in the MLB.

What Are the Orioles Odds of Making the MLB Playoffs?

That has Baltimore in the second-lowest tier titled, “A Faint Pulse Is Still a Pulse” of a recent piece Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report put together, ranking every team’s chance of making the postseason.

“Maybe Baltimore can right the ship and get back on track to those preseason expectations on par with how well it fared in the past two seasons. However, the team has shown no reason to assume a similar turnaround is forthcoming,” wrote Miller.

At the time that piece was published, the Orioles postseason odds were already slim.

Baseball-Reference had them at 1.4%, FanGraphs was at 7.7% and PECOTA was the most optimistic at 11.5%.

Those numbers almost assuredly have all decreased, losing three more games to the Minnesota Twins. It was the second sweep in just over a week’s time at the hands of the scorching hot AL Central contenders, who are on the opposite end of the spectrum riding an 11-game winning streak.

There just aren’t many bright spots for Baltimore currently that would provide any optimism that the team is ready to turn things around and regain the form many thought they would have coming into the year.

Their starting rotation is a mess and the lineup isn’t producing anywhere near a level to help compensate and make up for it.

At this stage, the Orioles selling off some pieces and recouping as many assets as possible is a likelier outcome than making a push for a postseason spot.

But, there remains some people in the baseball world who believe the Orioles will turn things around.