Baltimore Orioles Projected To Be Among Elite Teams in Upcoming Season

The Baltimore Orioles, one of baseball's youngest teams, are projected to be one of the best teams in baseball in 2025.

Sep 24, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) and third baseman Jordan Westburg (11) celebrates after defeating the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

There has been a lot of discussion about where the Baltimore Orioles rank amongst the contenders in baseball heading into the 2025 campaign.

Their lineup has the potential to be amongst the best in baseball for the upcoming season and foreseeable future with how many young foundational pieces they have.

Headlining that group is shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who is already an MVP-caliber performer. Catcher Adley Rutschman is in discussion as being the best player at his position and infielder Jordan Westburg was an All-Star in 2024.

Outfielder Colton Cowser finished second in the Rookie of the Year race last year and the team is hoping that Coby Mayo can possibly follow suit in 2025. Jackson Holliday has incredible upside as well and could be the starting second baseman.

For how much excitement and youth there is surrounding the lineup, the pitching staff finds itself on the opposite end of the spectrum.

The Orioles haven’t found as much success developing arms as they have bats, as evidenced by the state of their starting rotation.

Without Corbin Burnes, who departed in free agency to join the Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore is lacking a true ace.

They are hopeful that the depth they have created will help overcome that.

Right now, Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin are atop the rotation. Veterans Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano will fill in behind them. Dean Kremer looks like the favorite for the No. 5 spot but will face competition from Albert Suarez, Trevor Rogers and Cade Povich.

Eventually, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells will factor into the mix once they complete their rehabs from injury.

Despite the clear concerns, there are some projections that views Baltimore in a very positive light.

One of them is PECOTA, where the Orioles are projected to be amongst the elite teams in baseball in 2025.

Their 78% chance of making the playoffs is tied for fourth best in the game with the New York Yankees and New York Mets. There isn’t another American League team ahead of them, which hints at them being in the running for the No. 1 seed.

2025 Playoff Chances (PECOTA):

100% LAD
90% ATL
87% CHC
78% NYY BAL NYM
75% TEX
69% PHI
63% MIN HOU
62% ARI
58% SEA
49% TOR
38% SD
32% TB
31% KC
29% CLE
26% MIL
22% DET
19% STL
15% SF
12% BOS
8% LAA
6% PIT WSH
5% CIN
2% ATH
0% CWS MIA COL

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 3, 2025

Their World Series odds are currently fourth best at 8.2%. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and Yankees have higher percentages.

What has led to such a positive outlook despite clear concerns about their starting rotation?

It certainly helps that Baltimore has put together arguably the best bullpen in baseball.

Should Felix Bautista return to form after undergoing Tommy John surgery, manager Brandon Hyde is going to be able to shorten games with the stellar group of relievers he has to choose from.

Yennier Cano, Seranthony Dominguez, Andrew Kittredge, Keegan Akin, Cionel Perez and Gregory Soto are all capable high-leverage performers that will operate in front of Bautista once he is ready to assume his role as the closer.

Good luck navigating that group, who are all projected to have ERAs of 3.74 or lower in 2025.