Orioles Predicted for Surprising Finish in Highly Competitive AL East Race

The Baltimore Orioles have received a favorable prediction of where they will finish in the AL East standings this season.

Aug 18, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Albert Suarez (49) and catcher Adley Rutschman (35) reacts during the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. | Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Orioles are going to have their work cut out for them to keep pace with their rivals in the American League East.

Heading into the 2025 season, the AL East is once again projected to be the toughest division in baseball. An argument could be made for all five teams to be playoff contenders as there is a lot to like about each club.

The Orioles certainly look like a playoff contender; the question is, can they compete enough to take home the division championship?

Keith Law of The Athletic (paid subscription required) believes they will be in the mix for a wild card spot in the AL with a record of 87-75.

But, that won’t be enough to win the AL East, where he has selected the Boston Red Sox to reign supreme with a 91-71 record.

87 victories for Baltimore would make them the No. 1 wild card team for the second year in a row based on Law’s predictions. That is the most wins for a non-division winning squad and tied for the third most in the AL with the Minnesota Twins.

A major reason for the Orioles landing where they have in the predictions is that they didn’t take full advantage of the situation they found themselves in during the winter with Juan Soto leaving the New York Yankees.

“...they made a lot of small moves that don’t seem to add up to the big move, so their rotation remains a real weakness for a team that is trying to get to the World Series — and has the lineup and defense to do so,” Law wrote.

After losing Corbin Burnes in free agency to the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Baltimore didn’t do much to replace him at the top of the rotation.

Veterans Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano were signed to one-year deals to help offset his loss, but it is fair to wonder if enough was done on the mound.

The Orioles have a lot of starting pitching depth, but are lacking a true No. 1 ace to anchor the group. Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish, the closest thing the team has to an ace, aren’t going to be available for chunks of the campaign.

That is a big reason why the Red Sox are predicted to finish ahead of Baltimore in the AL East standings.

They went out and made a splash on the trade market, acquiring Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox to anchor their rotation. Walker Buehler was signed in free agency along with Patrick Sandoval, joining All-Star Tanner Houck.

The Orioles’ outlook would be drastically different had they pulled off the blockbuster for Crochet and very likely would be ahead of Boston in these predictions if that were the case.

Ownership deserves some credit for allowing such a huge jump in payroll in 2025 compared to 2024, but only time will tell if that was money well spent this past offseason.